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Talking Points

  • GBPJPY at key inflection point / channel support
  • Scalp bias constructive above 173.75
  • Limited event risk on tap until next week

GBPJPY Daily Chart

GBPJPY Targets Channel Support- Longs Favored Above 173.75

Chart Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

Technical Outlook

  • GBPJPY trading within well-defined ascending channel formation- bullish
  • Now testing key Fibonacci/channel support 173.75
  • July opening range set, 173.27- bullish invalidation
  • Key resistance at 175.37/50- bearish invalidation
  • Breach targets subsequent resistance objectives into the 177.45/70barrier
  • Event Risk Ahead: BoE Rate Decision tomorrow

GBPJPY 30min Chart

GBPJPY Targets Channel Support- Longs Favored Above 173.75

Notes: Since we last highlighted the GBPJPY on June 25th, the pair has achieved two of the three profit targets before turning over just ahead of the final objective at 175.50 (high was 175.35). The subsequent pullback has taken sterling back into a key inflection point at 173.75. This level is defined by channel support dating back to May and the 61.8% extension taken from the advance off the 2014 low. The July opening range low comes in a tad lower at 173.27 and we’ll reserve this threshold as our near-term bullish invalidation level.

Intra-week momentum divergence in the RSI signature yesterday suggests the pair is vulnerable for a reversal with the weekly opening range low coming in at key support. Bottom line: looking to buy pullbacks while above 173.75 with only a break/close below the monthly low at 173.27 invalidating our medium-term bias heading into the end of July. Use caution heading into the BoE interest rate decision tomorrow as thin liquidity conditions could fuel added volatility in sterling crosses. Follow the progress of this trade setup and more throughout the trading week with DailyFX on Demand.

* It’s extremely important to give added consideration regarding the timing of intra-day scalps with the opening ranges on a session & hourly basis offering further clarity on intra-day biases.

Key Threshold Grid

Entry/Exit Targets



Technical Relevance

Bearish Invalidation



61.8% & 100% Ext(s) / 38.2% Retracement

Break Target 1



50% Retracement

Break Target 2

Daily / 30min


61.8% Retracement / 78.6% Ext / Jan High

Break Target 3



78.6% Retracement

Break Target 4



Weekly ORH / Soft Resistance

Break Target 5

Daily / 30min


78.6% & 100% Ext(s) / July High / 1993 High

Break Target 6



1.618% Extension

Support Target 1



100% Extension

Bullish Invalidation

Daily / 30min


61.8% Retracement / Weekly ORL

Break Target 1



61.8% Retracement

Break Target 2

Daily / 30min


July ORL / Former TL Res Dating 1/23

Break Target 3



78.6% Retracement

Break Target 4

Daily / 30min


50% Ext / 88.6% Retrace / March Close High

Break Target 5

Daily / 30min


50DMA / 50% Retracement

Average True Range

Daily (20)


Profit Targets 20-23pips

*ORH: Opening Range High

*ORL: Opening Range Low

Other Setups in Play:

  • AUDUSD July Range Targets Key Support- Shorts Favored Sub 9440
  • EURUSD July Opening Range Play- Shorts Favored Sub 1.37
  • AUDCHF Rebounds Off Key Support- Longs Favored Above 8360
  • GBPJPY Testing Key Inflection Zone- Shorts at Risk Above 172.70
  • GBPCAD Scalps Target Weekly Range- Bullish Bias at Risk Sub 1.8480
  • GBPAUD Scalps Favor Buying Dips Post June Range Break
  • GBPNZD Weekly Opening Range Play- 1.96 Resistance in Focus
  • AUDJPY Long-bias at Risk Sub 96- BoJ / China Data On Tap
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