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Talking Points

  • EUR/USD rebounds from key support
  • NZD/USD reverses from important Fibonacci retracement
  • Uptick in volatility eyed in USD/JPY

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Foreign Exchange Price & Time at a Glance:

Price & Time Analysis: EUR/USD

Price & Time: Double "Inside Days" in USD/JPY

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

  • EUR/USD remains in consolidation mode above the 4th square root relationship of the year’s high near 1.3520
  • Our near-term trend bias is lower in the euro while below the 61.8% retracement of the year’s range at 1.3675
  • A daily close under 1.3520 is needed to signal a resumption of the downtrend
  • The second half of next week looks to be an important turn window
  • A move over 1.3675 would turn us positive on the euro

EUR/USD Strategy: Like the short side while below 1.3675

Instrument

Support 2

Support 1

Spot

Resistance 1

Resistance 2

EUR/USD

*1.3520

1.3545

1.3565

1.3595

*1.3675

Price & Time Analysis: NZD/USD

Price & Time: Double "Inside Days" in USD/JPY

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

  • NZD/USD is in consolidation mode below the 78.6% retracement of the May-June range near .8700
  • Our near-term trend bias is positive in the Kiwi while over .8365
  • A daily close over .8700 should signal an upside resumption
  • A cycle turn window is eyed next week
  • A daily close below .8365 would turn our near-term trend bias negative

NZD/USD Strategy: Like the long side while over .8635.

Instrument

Support 2

Support 1

Spot

Resistance 1

Resistance 2

NZD/USD

*.8635

.8655

.8670

*.8700

.8735

Focus Chart of the Day: USD/JPY

Price & Time: Double "Inside Days" in USD/JPY

A quick glance at the daily USD/JPY chart will show the exchange rate has undergone two inside days in row and is working on a third today. An “inside day” as the name implies just refers to a technical occurrence where the most recent day’s range was less than the prior day’s range (ie. fits inside). Multiple inside days are fairly rare and need to be paid attention to when they occur as they have a tendency to be strong precursors to an increase in near-term volatility and directional trend. Shorter-term cyclical analysis slightly favors a move to the downside, but a move through the range of the past couple of weeks at 102.78-101.59 is really needed to get us more excited about any real directional move starting in USD/JPY.

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