Talking Points

  • EUR/USD rebounds off key Gann level
  • AUD/USD closing in on important pivot
  • Gold turn window next week
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Foreign Exchange Price & Time at a Glance:

Price & Time Analysis: EUR/USD

Price & Time: Important Turn Window Coming Up For Gold

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

  • EUR/USD briefly undercut the 1.3520 4th square root relationship of the year’s high on Thursday before rebounding aggressively to close the day well over 1.3585
  • Our near term trend bias will turn higher on a move through 1.3675
  • A daily close under 1.3585 is needed to re-invigorate immediate downside prospects in the euro
  • A minor turn window is eyed later next week
  • A push through 1.3675 will confirm that a positive euro cycle is underway
EUR/USD Strategy: Flat, but like the longside on a move through 1.3675.

Instrument

Support 2

Support 1

Spot

Resistance 1

Resistance 2

EUR/USD

*1.3520

*1.3585

1.3630

*1.3675

1.3710

Price & Time Analysis: AUD/USD

Price & Time: Important Turn Window Coming Up For Gold

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

  • AUD/USD has moved steadily higher since finding support at the 50% retracement of the October to January decline near .9200
  • Our near-term trend bias is higher in the Aussie while over .9255
  • A close over the 61.8% retracement of the April to May decline near .9360 is needed to set off a more important leg higher
  • A minor turn window is eyed around the middle of next week
  • A daily close back under .9255 would turn us negative on the Aussie
AUD/USD Strategy: Like buying on weakness against .9255.

Instrument

Support 2

Support 1

Spot

Resistance 1

Resistance 2

AUD/USD

*.9255

.9310

.9345

*.9360

.9410

Focus Chart of the Day: GOLD

Price & Time: Important Turn Window Coming Up For Gold

I mentioned yesterday some of the contrarian extremes that have started to creep into currency DSI figures this week. Certain commodities are also starting to reach levels that often correspond with more meaningful reversals. Gold in particular has caught my attention as the Daily Sentiment Index fell to just 9% bulls earlier this week while the 5-day average hovers around 11%. That in of itself is usually an important enough development to make me wary of a potential change in trend, but when these contrarian extremes in sentiment are getting touched around the same time that my cyclical analysis is pointing to a turn I pay extra close attention. The middle of June looks to be one of these key time periods as a cyclical relationship related to the 1980 high in the metal is expected to influence. I favor a low of some importance coming out of this turn window. Ideally this turn would come from somewhere around 1210/20, but I am beginning to doubt whether the market will get there by the middle of the month. A push through 1286 would signal that the metal has bottomed early.

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