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Talking Points

  • Critical test for the euro this week
  • USD/CAD closing in on key resistance
  • Cycle turn window in the Kiwi

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Foreign Exchange Price & Time at a Glance:

Price & Time Analysis: EUR/USD

Price & Time: Kiwi Revival?

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

  • EUR/USD is in consolidation mode above the 50% retracement of the 2013/2014 advance in the 1.3365 area
  • Our near-term trend bias is lower in the euro while under 1.3450
  • A daily close under 1.3365 is needed to set off a new leg lower in the exchange rate
  • An important cycle turn window is seen this week
  • A move over 1.3450 would turn us positive on the euro

EUR/USD Strategy: Like only a minimal short position while below 1.3450. Will look to stop and reverse on a move through this level.

Instrument

Support 2

Support 1

Spot

Resistance 1

Resistance 2

EUR/USD

1.3325

*1.3365

1.3390

1.3400

*1.3450

Price & Time Analysis: USD/CAD

Price & Time: Kiwi Revival?

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

  • USD/CAD stalled its uptrend last week just below the 50% retracement of the year-to-date range
  • Our near-term trend bias is higher in Funds while over 1.0870
  • Resistance between 1.0950/60 looks critical and needs to be overcome on a daily close basis to signal that a more important push higher is underway
  • A cycle turn window is eyed later this week
  • A move below 1.0870 would turn us negative on USD/CAD

USD/CAD Strategy: Like holding only reduced long position while over 1.0870.

Instrument

Support 2

Support 1

Spot

Resistance 1

Resistance 2

USD/CAD

1.0825

*1.0870

1.0940

*1.0960

1.1030

Focus Chart of the Day: NZD/USD

Price & Time: Kiwi Revival?

A bunch of USD pairs are giving us the same somewhat conflicting short-term cyclical picture as we enter into August. The reversals last week in several of the main pairs came off some very important levels, but this week looks more important from a timing perspective and we can’t rule out a final USD stab higher over the next day or so before a more important corrective process attempts to takes hold. The NZD/USD probably best personifies this dilemma as the exchange rate reversed last week right off the 4th square root relationship of the year’s high at .8460 before struggling higher over the past couple of days. A final move lower today before turning up would be ideal from a short-term timing perspective, but since when do markets give us “ideal”? Over the next few days a move over .8550 should be enough to confirm that a low of some importance is in place, while continued weakness and new trend lows into the latter part of the week would signal our negative short-term USD view is in serious trouble.

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This publication attempts to further explore the concept that mass movements of human psychology, as represented by the financial markets, are subject to the mathematical laws of nature and through the use of various geometric, arithmetic, statistical and cyclical techniques a better understanding of markets and their corresponding movements can be achieved.

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