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Talking Points

  • USD/JPY nearing neckline of possible head & shoulders pattern
  • SPX records new all-time high
  • NZD/USD overcomes key Fib retracement

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Foreign Exchange Price & Time at a Glance:

Price & Time Analysis: USD/JPY

Price & Time: Kiwi "Still Dancing"

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

  • USD/JPY remains under pressure since failing at the start of the month near a key Gann/Fibonacci confluence in the 102.80 area
  • Our near-term trend bias is lower in the exchange rate while below this level
  • A daily close under 101.60 sould confirm the start of a more meaningful decline in the rate
  • Minor turn windows are seen tomorrow and around the middle of next week
  • A close over 102.80 would turn us positive on USD/JPY

USD/JPY Strategy: Like the short side while below 102.80.

Instrument

Support 2

Support 1

Spot

Resistance 1

Resistance 2

USD/JPY

101.35

*101.60

101.80

102.35

*102.80

Price & Time Analysis: S&P 500

Price & Time: Kiwi "Still Dancing"

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

  • S&P 500 broke through a key Fibonacci projection at 1955 yesterday to record a new all-time high
  • Our near-term trend bias remains positive on the index while over 1925
  • The 1970 area is the next potential resistance area of note
  • An important cycle turn window is seen around the middle of next month
  • A daily close under 1925 would turn us negative on the index.

S&P 500 Strategy: Like the long side while over 1925.

Instrument

Support 2

Support 1

Spot

Resistance 1

Resistance 2

S&P 500

1905

*1925

1955

*1970

1989

Focus Chart of the Day: NZD/USD

Price & Time: Kiwi "Still Dancing"

Yellen’s comments yesterday were on the dovish side as she effectively said the central bank led liquidity party will continue for the foreseeable future. “High yielding” currencies benefitted sending NZD/USD through key resistance at .8700 to the next Fibonacci retracement (88.6% of the May decline) near .8735. We think Wednesday’s close over .8700 confirms our positive cyclical view (read HERE) on the Bird and should set the stage for a general move higher into the next turn window of importance around the end of the month. Shorter-term cycle studies suggest some minor weakness could be seen around the beginning of next week, but this should just provide an opportunity to add to long positions. Only unexpected aggressive weakness under this week’s low near .8640 would undermine the positive near-term technical structure.

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