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Talking Points

  • USD/JPY on cusp of more important move?
  • Important turn window coming up in Gold
  • Impulsive move in NZD/USD changes near-term cyclical picture

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Foreign Exchange Price & Time at a Glance:

Price & Time Analysis: USD/JPY

Price & Time: Kiwi!

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

  • USD/JPY has come under steady pressure since last week’s failure near key Gann resistance in the 102.75 area
  • While under 102.75 our near-term trend bias is lower in the exchange rate
  • Interim support is eyed around 101.75, but a close under 101.35 is needed to signal the start of a more important decline
  • A minor cycle turn window is seen today
  • A move through 102.75 would shift our near-term trend bias to positive

USD/JPY Strategy: Like the short side while below 102.75.

Instrument

Support 2

Support 1

Spot

Resistance 1

Resistance 2

USD/JPY

*101.35

101.75

102.05

102.35

*102.75

Price & Time Analysis: GOLD

Price & Time: Kiwi!

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

  • XAU/USD has moved steadily higher since reversing last week near the 4th square root relationship of the year’s high in the 1244 area
  • Our near-term trend bias is negative in the metal while below 1286
  • The 1244 level remains a key pivot with a daily close below this level needed to trigger the next extension lower towards 1210/20
  • The middle of the month is a potentially important cycle turn window related to the 1980 high
  • A daily close over 1286 would turn us positive on Gold

XAU/USD Strategy: Square, but may look to sell on strength against 1286.

Instrument

Support 2

Support 1

Spot

Resistance 1

Resistance 2

XAU/USD

*1210/20

*1244

1265

*1286

1300

Focus Chart of the Day: NZD/USD

Price & Time: Kiwi!

NZD/USD moved sharply higher overnight following the move by the RBNZ and has now retraced about 75% of the May decline. The reversal last week came a little later than we were looking for in terms of time, but from a price perspective it was pretty ideal as the rate bottomed just a few pips below the 50% retracement of the year’s range near .8400. So what now? In a note last month we said we didn’t like chasing it lower on the break of the double top neckline at .8515 and would like to sell it at higher levels in June. The impulsive nature of the move of the last few hours has changed things a bit and we see no real reason to fight this advance just yet. A medium-term cycle turn window is eyed around the end of the month, but longer-term cyclical analysis suggests the uptrend could persist into August.

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