DailyFX.com -

Talking Points

  • USD/JPY attempting to breakout
  • S&P 500 nearing important downside pivot
  • Important developments on the monthly FXCM Dollar Index chart

Get real time volume on your charts for free. Click HERE

Foreign Exchange Price & Time at a Glance:

Price & Time Analysis: USD/JPY

Price & Time: The Longer-Term Implications of Recent USD Strength

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

  • USD/JPY traded to its highest level yesterday since the start of April
  • Our near-term trend bias is higher in USD/JPY while above 101.05
  • The 61.8% retracement of the April/May decline at 102.85 needs to be overcome to ease doubts of a false of break
  • A very minor cycle turn window is eyed early next week
  • Interim support is seen around 101.75, but only aggressive weakness under 101.05 would turn us negative on the exchange rate.

USD/JPY Strategy: Like the long side while over 101.05.


Support 2

Support 1


Resistance 1

Resistance 2







Price & Time Analysis: S&P 500

Price & Time: The Longer-Term Implications of Recent USD Strength

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

  • S&P 500 has chopped around since the important cycle turn window around the middle of the month (notably the Dow peaked during this window and the divergence has yet to be resolved)
  • However, our near-term trend bias is higher in index while above 1947
  • A close over 1989 is needed to confirm a resumption of the broader trend
  • A minor cycle turn window is eyed later next week
  • A daily close under 1947 will turn us negative on the S&P 500

S&P 500 Strategy: Like holding only small long positions here. Will look to trade from the short side if 1947 gives way on a closing basis.


Support 2

Support 1


Resistance 1

Resistance 2

S&P 500






Focus Chart of the Day: FXCM US Dollar Index

Price & Time: The Longer-Term Implications of Recent USD Strength

It is the last trading day of the month and several markets we track are on the cusp of putting in some important patterns on the monthly. Perhaps the most interesting is the FXCM US Dollar Index (equally weighted basket of USD against EUR, JPY, GBP & AUD) which if things stay as they are for a few more hours will complete a key reversal/outside month. This is a pretty bullish medium/long-term omen, but even more so when you take into account that the reversal at the beginning of the month came right off the 50% retracement of the 2012/2013 advance. It is also worth noting that a close around current levels could also be interpreted as a breakout from a year-long continuation pattern as the index will have overcome the trendline connecting the July 2013 & January 2014 highs. All things considered, the USD clearly looks to be gearing up for a strong second half of the year. Something the longer-term cyclical picture seems to support. In my experience, however, such widely patterns don’t usually work right away as there is often a pullback period after technicians like myself hype the monthly patterns. Such an occurrence looks possible this time as a short period of weakness is favored after the cycle turn window next week.

To receive Kristian’s analysis directly via email, please SIGN UP HERE.

This publication attempts to further explore the concept that mass movements of human psychology, as represented by the financial markets, are subject to the mathematical laws of nature and through the use of various geometric, arithmetic, statistical and cyclical techniques a better understanding of markets and their corresponding movements can be achieved.

Related Articles
  1. Investing News

    China’s Forex Reserves Dropped Significantly

    China’s forex​ reserves dropped by a record $93.9 billion at the end of August to $3.56 trillion because the Central Bank has been selling dollars to provide a cushion to the falling yuan​
  2. Forex

    The Pros and Cons of a Fully Convertible Rupee

    Amid the rising economic power of India, the talks of making the Indian currency fully convertible are gaining momentum. We look at the pros and cons.
  3. Forex Fundamentals

    Chinese Yuan an Unlikely Reserve Currency

    As the world's second largest economy, China's challenge to America’s dominance includes a push to make the yuan (RMB), the world’s reserve currency. Whether it can do that now is unclear.
  4. Economics

    How Currency Enforcement Helped Sink The Trans-Pacific Partnership (TTP)

    One particular barrier to trade that has received much attention of late and caused delays in negotiations of the TPP is exchange-rate manipulation, by which a country artificially devalues its ...
  5. Forex

    Top U.S Forex News Sites

    Breaking news moves forex markets. Here are the top U.S. sites for tracking forex news.
  6. Investing

    Financial News Comparison: Bloomberg Vs. Reuters

    Access to financial information has grown with the expansion of digital news. Bloomberg and Thomson Reuters lead the pack, claiming a majority of the business information market.
  7. Economics

    Who Benefits From South Korea's Lowered Interest Rates?

    South Korea is the latest country to cut interest rates in an attempt to stimulate economic growth.
  8. Forex Education

    The Top Uses For P2P Currency Exchange

    Peer-to-peer (P2P) currency exchange networks offer a viable and cheaper alternative for buying and selling currencies.
  9. Forex

    Steps To Open An Offshore Forex Account

    Here is a simple breakdown of how to open an offshore forex account for US-based users, including legal requirements.
  10. Entrepreneurship

    Top Forex Trading Apps

    A brief overview of the top apps that help forex traders with on time information, charts and more.

You May Also Like

Hot Definitions
  1. Quick Ratio

    The quick ratio is an indicator of a company’s short-term liquidity. The quick ratio measures a company’s ability to meet ...
  2. Black Tuesday

    October 29, 1929, when the DJIA fell 12% - one of the largest one-day drops in stock market history. More than 16 million ...
  3. Black Monday

    October 19, 1987, when the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) lost almost 22% in a single day. That event marked the beginning ...
  4. Monetary Policy

    Monetary policy is the actions of a central bank, currency board or other regulatory committee that determine the size and ...
  5. Indemnity

    Indemnity is compensation for damages or loss. Indemnity in the legal sense may also refer to an exemption from liability ...
  6. Discount Bond

    A bond that is issued for less than its par (or face) value, or a bond currently trading for less than its par value in the ...
Trading Center