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Talking Points

  • USD/JPY breakout continues
  • NZD/USD touches key Fib level
  • USD/NOK reverses sharply

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Foreign Exchange Price & Time at a Glance:

Price & Time Analysis: USD/JPY

Price & Time: NOK Bucks the Trend

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

  • USD/JPY touched its highest level in over four months on Thursday
  • Our near-term trend bias is higher while over 102.75
  • The April high near 104.10 is the next near-term pivot with a close above this level needed to confirm that this breakout is genuine
  • Very minor turn windows are seen today and Tuesday
  • Weakness under 102.75 would turn us negative on exchang rate

USD/JPY Strategy: We like the long side while over 102.75.

Instrument

Support 2

Support 1

Spot

Resistance 1

Resistance 2

USD/JPY

*102.75

103.40

103.85

*104.10

104.40

Price & Time Analysis: NZD/USD

Price & Time: NOK Bucks the Trend

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

  • NZD/USD fell to its lowest level in since early March today before finding support near the 61.8% retracement of the year’s range near .8350
  • Our near-term trend bias is negative on the Bird while under .8460
  • A close under .8350 is needed to set off a new leg lower
  • A cycle turn window is seen around the second half of next week
  • A daily close over .8460 will turn us positive again on the Kiwi

NZD/USD Strategy: Like holding reduced short positions while below .8460.

Instrument

Support 2

Support 1

Spot

Resistance 1

Resistance 2

NZD/USD

.8320

*.8350

.8380

.8410

*.8460

Focus Chart of the Day: USD/NOK

Price & Time: NOK Bucks the Trend

NOK is one of the few currencies bucking the strong USD trend at the moment. USD/NOK peaked out around the start of the month and has come under fairly steady pressure ever since. Early this week the buck tried to mount a recovery which has mostly been retraced with today’s “outside day” reversal. We have found that outside day patterns following minor recoveries tend to be fairly reliable and this action seems to bode well for a deeper decline in the days ahead. The near-term cyclical picture is also negative and seems to support this view as several cyclical techniques suggest the rate should remain weak into at least the next turn window around the middle of next week. The 6.1345 level is a key near-term pivot with a close below needed to trigger a more serious decline. Strength back over 6.2000 would completely undermine this negative view.

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This publication attempts to further explore the concept that mass movements of human psychology, as represented by the financial markets, are subject to the mathematical laws of nature and through the use of various geometric, arithmetic, statistical and cyclical techniques a better understanding of markets and their corresponding movements can be achieved.

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