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Talking Points

  • EUR/USD cycle turn window this week
  • USD/JPY turns at key Fib level
  • Gold to turn higher?

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Foreign Exchange Price & Time at a Glance:

Price & Time Analysis: USD/JPY

Price & Time: In Search of A USD Correction

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

  • USD/JPY touched its highest level in almost four months last week before encountering resistance near the 50% retracement of the year’s range in the 103.10 area
  • Our near-term trend bias is higher in the exchange rate while over 101.50
  • A daily close over the 61.8% retracement of the April/May decline at 102.85 is needed to confirm a resumption of the trend
  • A very minor cycle turn window is eyed mid-week
  • A move under 101.50 would turn us negative on USD/JPY

USD/JPY Strategy: We like the long side while over 101.50.

Instrument

Support 2

Support 1

Spot

Resistance 1

Resistance 2

USD/JPY

*101.50

102.35

102.60

*102.85

103.10

Price & Time Analysis: GOLD

Price & Time: In Search of A USD Correction

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

  • XAU/USD has come under steady pressure over the past month or so
  • Our near-term trend bias is lower in the metal while under 1300
  • A vital support area is eyed between 1280 and 1262 and a close beneath the latter is really needed to signal that a more important decline is unfolding
  • An important cycle turn window is seen this week
  • A push back over 1300 would turn us positive on the metal

XAU/USD Strategy: Square into the turn window, but a move over 1300 would get us long.

Instrument

Support 2

Support 1

Spot

Resistance 1

Resistance 2

XAU/USD

*1262

1280

1290

*1300

1321

Focus Chart of the Day: EUR/USD

Price & Time: In Search of A USD Correction

The move lower in EUR/USD over the past few months has been impressive. On Wednesday the euro touched the 50% retracement (1.3365) of the advance off last year’s April low before rebounding. Several cyclical methodologies suggest a turn higher should be seen this week (or at least attempted) which should lead to healthy counter-trend recovery through much August. Some final weakness over the next few days would not surprise, but we suspect that the 1.3365 level will probably hold - at least on a closing basis. A move through 1.3485 should be enough to confirm that a low of some kind is in place while new trend lows after Thursday would warn our budding positive view on the euro is wrong.

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This publication attempts to further explore the concept that mass movements of human psychology, as represented by the financial markets, are subject to the mathematical laws of nature and through the use of various geometric, arithmetic, statistical and cyclical techniques a better understanding of markets and their corresponding movements can be achieved.

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