Technical Skies Darken for USD Ahead of NFPs as Key Reversals Seen

By DailyFx | June 06, 2014 AAA

Talking Points:

- EURUSD, USDCHF key reversals threaten prior USD bullishness.

- Majors across the USD spectrum see Slow Stoch, MACD crosses.

- June forex seasonality calls for start of USD losing streak in June.

If the May US Nonfarm Payrolls report doesn't deliver, the US Dollar could be in trouble. Technical evidence across the US Dollar spectrum has cropped up over the past several days that the recent greenback bull run may be over, and a disappointing May labor market report could be the exact catalyst required to spur a turnaround.

Notably, the key reversals in EURUSD and USDCHF (essentially inverse pairs, trading at a -0.93 daily correlation since September 6, 2011, when the SNB implemented the Sf1.2000 EURCHF floor) have developed at levels we have previously identified as breakout thresholds.

In an unprecedented move - the Fed nor the BoJ have yet dared to do so - the ECB has dropped its deposit facility rate into negative territory. With inflation peristently low (but no apparent threat of deflation), the ECB is attempting to spur banks' lending habits by in essence charging a fee for keeping excess reserves parked at the ECB. Whether or not the measures have staying power with the Euro are an entirely different story: President Draghi indicated that rates were at the lower bound.

For all intents and purposes, Draghi carried a big stick, but did not necessarily pack the punch required to keep the Euro in a persistent subdued state. If the May NFP report disappoints (+215K expected from +288K; ADP Employment Change was +179K versus +210K expected), we wouldn't be surprised to see a greater rebound in EURUSD - in the near-term, the range to watch is from $1.3585 to 1.3670.

Read more: Trade Setups in EUR/USD, EUR/JPY, USD/CHF for the June ECB Meeting

comments powered by Disqus
Related Forex Analysis
  1. Trading Video: Gauging the Dominant Dollar, Yen and S&P 500 Trends
    Forex News

    Trading Video: Gauging the Dominant Dollar, Yen and S&P 500 Trends

  2. Strategy Video: The Process of Trend Reversals
    Forex News

    Strategy Video: The Process of Trend Reversals

  3. Session Recap: JPY retreats as risk appetite improves
    Forex News

    Session Recap: JPY retreats as risk appetite improves

  4. GBP/USD another attempt to 1.6100
    Forex News

    GBP/USD another attempt to 1.6100

  5. EUR/USD: a fresh outlook? - Rabobank
    Forex News

    EUR/USD: a fresh outlook? - Rabobank

Trading Center