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Talking Points:

  • USD/JPY Technical Strategy: Flat
  • Support: 102.37-50, 102.10, 101.61
  • Resistance: 102.89, 103.39, 104.18

The US Dollar is consolidating against the Japanese Yen following a retest of seven-month trend line resistance broken last week. The next upside barrier is at 102.90, the 61.8%Fibonacci expansion. A daily close above that initially targets the 76.4% level at 103.39. Alternatively, a turn below the 102.37-50 area, marked by the broken trend line and the 50% Fib, opens the door for a test of the 38.2% expansion at 102.10.

We are tactically opting to stand aside. While a long position is compelling from a technical perspective, a sharp SPX 500 selloff warns that risk aversion may trigger an unwinding of Yen-funded carry trades and send USDJPY downward. With that in mind, we will remain flat for now.

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USD/JPY Technical Analysis: Resistance Sub-103.00 Holding

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

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