DailyFX.com -

Talking Points:

- GBP/USD Continues to Search for Support as RSI Fails to Retain Bullish Trend

- USD/CAD Breakout Gathers Pace; Trades Back Above Former-Support

- USDOLLAR Coming Up Against Trendline Resistance Ahead of 2Q GDP, FOMC





Daily Change (%)

Daily Range (% of ATR)

DJ-FXCM Dollar Index







  • Will continue to watch downside targets as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) fails to preserve the bullish momentum carried over from 2013.
  • Will retain a constructive long-term view as long as GBP/USD holds above June low (1.6697); Bank of England (BoE) remains on course to normalize monetary policy ahead of Fed.
  • However, DailyFX Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) for GBP/USD has flipped, with the ratio now standing at +1.05; retail crowd has turned net-long the British Pound.


  • Bullish RSI momentum favors bullish breakout as USD/CAD carves long-term higher-low in July.
  • A break above 1.0900-20 should favor a move into the key Fibonacci confluence around 1.1000-20.
  • Long-term outlook remains bullish as USD/CAD preserves the upward trend from 2014, while Bank of Canada (BoC) retains a dovish tone for monetary policy.

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USDOLLAR Tests June High; Overbought for First Time in 2014

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Read More:

USD/JPY Rallies as US GDP Rebounds Strongly in the Second-Quarter

AUD/USD 0.9320 Floor In Focus Following Dark Cloud Cover Formation


USDOLLAR Tests June High; Overbought for First Time in 2014

Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

USDOLLAR(Ticker: USDollar):

  • Dow Jones-FXCM U.S. Dollar Index tests June high (10,541) as U.S. 2Q GDP well-exceeds market expectations; RSI shows first overbought reading for 2014.
  • Need less-dovish forward-guidance from Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) to favor additional USD strength; will Fed hawks finally dissent?.
  • May face a near-term pullback ahead of Non-Farm Payrolls (+230K) as the ADP Employment report disappoints.
  • Interim Resistance: 10,555 (50.0% retracement) to 10,561 (100% retracement)
  • Interim Support: 10,354 (Oct. low) to 10,375 (50.0& retracement)





ADP Employment Change (JUL)




Gross Domestic Product (Annualized) (2Q A)




Personal Consumption (2Q A)




Gross Domestic Product Price Index (2Q A)




Core Personal Consumption Expenditure (QoQ) (2Q A)




Federal Open Market Committee Interest Rate Decision



Fed QE3 Purchases



Fed Treasury Purchases



Fed MBS Purchases



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