DailyFX.com -

Weekly Trading Forecast: Will Volatility and Dollar Rallies Continue?

US Dollar Rally at the Mercy of Volatility, Interest Rate Trends

The Dow Jones FXCM Dollar Index (ticker = USDollar) mounted its biggest rally in six months this past week. That is a serious reversal of fortune from the technical collapse the currency was facing in the first half of July. Yet, the transition from rebound to full-blown rally is a jump the dollar may not be able to make. After grinding out hard-fought gains against its major counterparts, the greenback’s top fundamental drivers are starting to show the tell-tale signs of doubt. Will US interest rate expectations finally hit the same stride that carried the Pound to seven-year highs? Are we on the brink of an all-out risk aversion move?

British Pound Likely to Continue Lower Unless Bank of England Reacts

The British Pound tumbled further versus the US Dollar, and the sharp shift in momentum all but confirms that the GBPUSD likely topped and is likely to continue lower. Traders sent the Sterling lower for the fourth-cocutive trading week, and whether it can recover into the new month may depend on the upcoming Bank of England monetary policy decision on the 7th and Inflation Report due the 13th.

USD/JPY Risks Larger Pullback as BoJ Refrains From Expanding QE

The USD/JPY broke out of the bearish trend from earlier this year as the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) scaled back its dovish tone for monetary policy, but the Bank of Japan (BoJ) interest rate decision on August 8 may boost the appeal of the Japanese Yen as the central bank remains confident in achieve the 2% inflation target over the policy horizon.

Gold Trades Heavy as USD Goes Bid on Fed, GDP- August Open In Focus

Gold prices are lower for a third consecutive week with the precious metal off by 0.90% to trade at $1295 ahead of the New York close on Friday. The losses mark a 2.47% decline for the month of July and come amid renewed strength in the greenback with the Dow Jones FXCM Dollar Index breaking through trendline resistance dating back to the 2013 high on the back of a stellar 2Q GDP print and a more upbeat assessment of the economy from the Federal Reserve.

Australian Dollar May Bounce Before Selling Pressure Builds in Earnest

The Australian Dollar faced heavy selling pressure last week, with prices dropping through the bottom of a range that contained price action since the beginning of June. The force behind the move lower came from external factors: an impressively strong second-quarter US GDP figure and an easing of the FOMC’s concern about persistently low inflation hinted Janet Yellen and company may move swiftly to raise rates after the QE3 asset purchase program is wound down in October.

Related Articles
  1. Investing Basics

    Building My Portfolio with BlackRock ETFs and Mutual Funds (ITOT, IXUS)

    Find out how to construct the ideal investment portfolio utilizing BlackRock's tools, resources and its popular low-cost exchange-traded funds (ETFs).
  2. Investing

    3 Things About International Investing and Currency

    As world monetary policy continues to diverge rocking bottom on interest rates while the Fed raises them, expect currencies to continue their bumpy ride.
  3. Chart Advisor

    These 3 ETFs Suggest Commodities Are Headed Lower (COMT,CCX,DBC)

    The charts of these three exchange traded funds suggest that commodities are stuck in a downtrend and it doesn't look like it will reverse any time soon.
  4. Trading Strategies

    4 ETFs To Trade the Russian Ruble (RSX, ERUS)

    Discover which exchange-traded funds (ETFs) provide investors with the greatest exposure to the Russian ruble and learn about the risks that come with each.
  5. Chart Advisor

    3 Charts That Suggest Now Is The Time To Invest In Real Estate (VNQ, SPG,PSA)

    Real estate assets have some of the strongest uptrends around. We'll take a look at three candidates poised for a move higher.
  6. Products and Investments

    Are Dividend Stocks a Good Substitute for Bonds?

    Are dividend paying stocks a good substitute for bonds in a low interest rate environment?
  7. Mutual Funds & ETFs

    When Is the Right Time to Change From Mutual Funds to ETFs

    Find out how to determine when it's the right time for you to switch from mutual funds to ETFs, including the benefits of ETFs and who they are best for.
  8. Investing Basics

    An Introduction To Structured Products

    Structured products take a traditional security and replace its usual payment features with a non-traditional payoff.
  9. Investing Basics

    Understanding Alternative Investments

    An alternative investment is one that’s not among the three traditional asset types – stocks, bonds or cash.
  10. Investing

    New Year, New Investing Strategy: Exploring ETFs

    Whether you’re a seasoned investor or new to the markets, you need to learn as much as you can about the present environment and how to navigate it.
RELATED FAQS
  1. Should mutual funds be subject to more regulation?

    Mutual funds, when compared to other types of pooled investments such as hedge funds, have very strict regulations. In fact, ... Read Full Answer >>
  2. Do ETFs pay capital gains?

    Exchange-traded funds (ETFs) can generate capital gains that are transferred to shareholders, typically once a year, triggering ... Read Full Answer >>
  3. How do real estate hedge funds work?

    A hedge fund is a type of investment vehicle and business structure that aggregates capital from multiple investors and invests ... Read Full Answer >>
  4. Are Vanguard ETFs commission-free?

    While some Vanguard exchange-traded funds (ETFs) are available commission-free from third-party brokers, a large portion ... Read Full Answer >>
  5. Do Vanguard ETFs require a minimum investment?

    Vanguard completely waives any U.S. dollar minimum amounts to buy its exchange-traded funds (ETFs), and the minimum ETF investment ... Read Full Answer >>
  6. Can mutual fund expense ratios be negative?

    Mutual fund expense ratios cannot be negative. An expense ratio is the sum total of all fees charged by an asset management ... Read Full Answer >>
COMPANIES IN THIS ARTICLE
Trading Center