Australian jobs up next - Westpac

By FXstreet.com | July 09, 2014 AAA

FXStreet (Bali) - Sean Callow, FX Strategist at Westpac, reviews the day ahead, noting that a fairly crowded calendar awaits, with main focus on Australia's jobs report and BoE rate call.

Key Quotes

"After a net 5k in job creation in Apr-May, Australia seems due for a strong headline jobs reading in June (11:30am Syd/9:30am Sing/HK). Sample volatility has probably played a role recently and leading indicators suggest some catch-up. Westpac looks for 25k, well ahead of the median forecast of 12k (range -5k to +35k). An uptick in the participation rate should see the unemployment rate rise to 5.9% from 5.8%, in line with consensus. A reading around our expectation should be worth about 30 pips on AUD/USD."

"Asia’s calendar is quite crowded. First up, the Bank of Korea is unanimously expected to hold steady at 2.5%. While inflation has been trending up since Q4 13 (now 1.7% y/y), the strong won should help keep it below the 3% target for some time, especially with consumption apparently still struggling since the ferry sinking damaged confidence. China’s June trade data will be watched closely as usual (12pm Syd/10am local). Consensus for a 10% y/y rise in exports and 6% y/y import rise would produce an even larger trade surplus, $37bn. This would be the largest surplus since Jan 2009, consistent with substantial FX reserve accumulation."

"Bank Indonesia and Bank Negara Malaysia review policy today. BI is seen on hold at 7.5% but forecasters are divided over BNM. A majority predict a 25bp hike to 3.25%, the first policy change since 2011. Japanese data should have no impact on JPY."

"The Bank of England MPC meets today. While Governor Carney is happy to talk about a rate hike this year, there is no expectation that it could come as soon as this meeting. As such, the standard practice of not releasing a statement when policy is unchanged should mean no particular GBP response. The US calendar features weekly jobless claims and what will no doubt be a hawkish speech on the economy from KC Fed president George."

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