FXStreet (Bali) - HuiYing Chan and Irene Cheung, FX Strategists at ANZ, review the latest futures positioning data for the week ending 5 August 2014, noting that leveraged funds saw the biggest weekly increase in net long USD positioning since February 2013.
"Leveraged funds saw the biggest weekly increase in net long USD positioning since February 2013. Positioning in USD rose by USD11.5bn, going from a net long position of USD4.2bn to USD15.7bn. Most of the change in positioning occurred via EUR, JPY and GBP, accounting for USD8.0bn of the total USD11.5bn change in USD positioning. Notably, the change in positioning also occurred in the week prior to the BOE and ECB meeting on 7 August, where leveraged funds were likely to have bought USD in in anticipation of dovish comments in the meeting."
"The biggest change in net positioning came from the EUR where bearish bets against the EUR rose for the third consecutive week to their highest since July 2012. Total net short positions stood at USD18.3bn, an increase of USD4.1bn from the week prior."
"The increase in JPY net short positioning was sizeable, contributing second most to the change in USD positioning; rising by 18.4k contracts worth USD2.2bn to 76.4k for an overall short position of USD9.3bn."
"Net long positions in GBP have been reduced for the sixth consecutive week, dragging on the sterling. Leveraged funds still maintain a large net long position in GBP worth USD9.0bn, suggesting potential for a further unwinding of sterling longs. Since the reduction of net long positions in GBPUSD took place six weeks ago, we have seen GBPUSD decline from 1.71 to 1.67."
"AUD net long positioning was also reduced post dovish comments by RBA on 5 August 2014; declining by 6.7k contracts (worth USD0.7bn) to 37.5k (worth USD3.5nb)."
"Interestingly, net long non-commercial positions in gold declined by 20.9k contracts to 133.9k. Net long positions might have been reinstituted as gold prices have increased amidst intensified geopolitical tensions. Net long positioning in WTI crude oil fell by 29.7k contracts to 349.1k. This is the sixth consecutive weekly decline in oil positioning since it reached historic highs in late June."