BoE minutes expected to reveal a 9-0 vote in favor of staying on hold - TD Securities

By | Updated August 20, 2014 AAA

FXStreet (Łodź) - Annette Beacher, Head of Asia-Pacific Research at TD Securities suggests that the minutes from BOE's monetary policy meeting in August will show a 9-0 vote in favour of rates unchanged.

Key quotes

"We’re in line with consensus in looking for a 9-0 vote, although Governor Carney’s Sunday Times interview, where he stressed the different views on the MPC about when the first rate hike should come, does keep the risks fairly high that we see a first dissent after all."

"The vote will be the key market driver, as an 8-1 vote would see yet another whipsaw in the market with cable and rates gapping higher, while a 9-0 vote can still see a small relief move with little likely in the text to add further direction."

"The only two interesting questions would be how disparate are the views on wage growth dynamics and how much of a turning point do MPC members need to see before voting for a hike."

"Even one to two dissents are unlikely to change our view that we’re unlikely to see the first rate hike in 2014."

"It may also be worthwhile to pay a little more attention to today’s Agents’ survey released alongside the minutes, as the BoE may start paying more attention to some of the anecdotal evidence as it grapples to explain the labour market conundrum of falling unemployment and weak wages."

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