FXStreet (Bali) - Sean Callow, FX Strategist at Westpac, reviews the key events for Thursday, outlining the series of PMIs in China and Europe, UK retail sales and US jobless claims as key.
The ‘flash’ Aug China manufacturing PMI from HSBC/Markit is due at 11:45am Syd/9:45am local. This will be closely watched. Last week's IP print, along with softer electricity consumption data, point to a softer start to Q3 economic momentum. The level of the PMI seems somewhat elevated compared to such readings so a more consistent picture may emerge today. The market is looking for 51.5 print versus 51.7 last month, but the balance of risks points to a downside surprise.
The advance Aug Markit PMIs in Europe begin with laggard France at 5pm Syd/3pm Sing/HK, followed by the stronger reading in Germany and then the preliminary reading for the Eurozone.
The US data calendar is fairly busy, kicking off with jobless claims for the week ending 16 Aug i.e. the week of the August non-farm payrolls survey. A number around 303K initial claims is expected. The August Philly Fed index of manufacturing sentiment is seen ticking down to 19.5 from a strong 23.9 in July, a high since March 2011. This is a volatile series so a sharper loss probably wouldn’t be a major concern. July existing home sales are seen ticking down -0.5% m/m after a 2.6% gain in June.