The day ahead: AUS CPI/BoE minutes - Rabobank

By FXstreet.com | July 22, 2014 AAA

FXStreet (Guatemala) - Analysts at Rabobank explained that today will start with Aussie CPI for Q2 (we only get that four times a year, so it’s always something of an event).

Key Quotes:

“The expectation is a 0.5% QoQ print, down from 0.6% in Q1, with YoY headline inflation edging up from 2.9% to 3.0% - the top end of the RBA’s comfort zone. However, the alternative measures (and don’t you love how there are always alternative inflation measures? Next time the price of something you like goes up why not tell the shopkeeper, “Please show me the alternative price for that.”), the trimmed mean and weighted median, are expected to show larger QoQ increases (0.6% and 0.7%, respectively) but a lower YoY level (2.7% in both cases). In any event, with recent data looking patchy, housing aside, China’s housing market wobbling, and the AUD still in the stratosphere, it would arguably take a very strong CPI print to disappoint Mr Stevens again, and so force the RBA to start thinking about a rate hike being on the horizon”.

“Today also has the BOE’s July minutes, where we can see if their thinking is shifting from the “no rate hike regardless” stance seen consistently earlier in the year despite very strong data”.

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