Divergences in monetary policies weigh on EUR/GBP – Danske Bank

By FXstreet.com | August 22, 2014 AAA

FXStreet (Edinburgh) - Morten Helt, Senior Analyst at Danske Bank, sees potential for further downside in the cross.

Key Quotes

“In its August inflation report, the Bank of England (BoE) highlighted that the amount of slack in the labour market, remains substantial, equivalent to around 1% of GDP”.

“The amount of slack remains an important factor in respect of timing the first rate hike and given the weak development in wage growth, the likelihood of a rate hike in 2014 has declined substantially”.

“All in all, however, the BoE is clearly on a very different path for monetary policy versus the ECB”.

“While the timing of the first BoE rate hike remains uncertain and will largely depend on the development in the labour market (wage growth in particular), the BoE is clearly on a very different path for monetary policy versus the ECB”.

“Hence, the case for a lower EUR/GBP, driven primarily by a divergent monetary policy outlook, remains intact and we target EUR/GBP at 0.78 in 3M (0.80), 0.77 in 6M (0.79) and 0.76 in 12M (0.77)”.

comments powered by Disqus
Related Forex Analysis
  1. USD/JPY Traders Await Clearer Guidance As A Doji Signals Hesitation
    Forex News

    USD/JPY Traders Await Clearer Guidance As A Doji Signals Hesitation

  2. USD/JPY is dancing around 107.00
    Forex News

    USD/JPY is dancing around 107.00

  3. USD/CAD Tests Critical Barrier As Intraday Dojis Denote Indecision
    Forex News

    USD/CAD Tests Critical Barrier As Intraday Dojis Denote Indecision

  4. NZD/USD Stalls At 0.8000 Barrier As A Doji Arises & Volume Fades
    Forex News

    NZD/USD Stalls At 0.8000 Barrier As A Doji Arises & Volume Fades

  5. EUR/USD sidelined above 1.2700
    Forex News

    EUR/USD sidelined above 1.2700

Trading Center