ECB meeting and NFP publication next week could spur volatility - FXStreet

By FXstreet.com | June 27, 2014 AAA

FXStreet Chief Analyst Valeria Bednarik takes a look at the economic events and data to be released next week and stresses that the ECB monetary policy meeting as well as the release of US jobs numbers on Thursday will attract most attention.

Key quotes

"With upcoming Friday being a national holiday in the US, on Thursday 3rd we will have two for the price of one: ECB meeting and US Nonfarm Payrolls will be released at 12:30 GMT, along with weekly unemployment claims, and trade balance also for the US."

"The least we can hope is for nice volatility, but to see some trend developing afterwards is a whole different story, considering summer holidays is adding to the already usual lack of volume."

"As for the ECB, market expectations are limited after the Central Bank cut its benchmark rate to record lows and introduced negative deposits rates. Attention will focus then on what Draghi has to say on the QE matter."

"If he continues to suggest the ECB will apply the unconventional measure to boost growth, the EUR may react to the downside, as market players will focus on the widening imbalance between economic policies compared to other countries. A dovish tone, or a downgrade in the outlook, will also weight in the common currency."

"When it comes to US employment figures, expectations are of another 200K jobs added and of unemployment rate to remain steady at 6.3%, in line with latest months and a moderate growth."

"US Trade Balance released at the same time, is expected to show a shrinking deficit in the second quarter, but if the data is mixed, with some readings positive and some negative, I won’t be expecting too much dollar momentum at the time."

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