FXStreet (Łódź) - Paul Robson, Senior FX Strategist at RBS points out that the ECB's recent announcement of conditional LTRO for September has given it breathing space for now but that upcoming events could still overtake it.
"The obvious focus is CPI and Germany releases its June estimate this Friday ahead of EU numbers on Monday 30th."
"The ECB has often hid behind evidenceof continued economic recovery as a reason for not loosening policy more aggressively. But German data have been more mixed and this means Monday’s PMIs and Tuesday’s IFO data are important."
"A combination of lower inflation and softer growth would increase the chance the ECB
announces an asset purchase program in September."
"Given the risks around this week’s US core PCE deflator numbers (above) we are neutral EUR/USD looking for opportunities to sell if this week’s German data surprise to the downside."