EUR/USD coming with a bearish bias - BTMU

By FXstreet.com | Updated July 30, 2014 AAA

FXStreet (Guatemala) - FX Strategists at the Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ notes the conditions surrounding the EUR/USD and key events that are to take place.

Key Quotes

"We had a bearish bias last week in respect to the strong US employment report and a low of 1.3576 was recorded before EUR/USD rebounded to today’s high of 1.3651. We are inclined to stick with the bearish bias again for the week ahead given spot today is already lower from today’s high in response to the news that an entity in Portugal’s Espirito Santo Financial Group missed some short-term debt repayments. The 10-year Portuguese government bond yield spread over Germany is 47bps higher this week and this could have further to play out as we move through the week ahead given the bank within this financial group is Portugal’s largest lender."

"The key event outside of Europe next week will of course be the semi-annual testimony to Congress by Chair Yellen, starting in the House on 15th July at 1500. We are wary of claiming that next week is the week when Yellen turns hawkish – that’s unlikely, but at the same time it seems reasonable to assume that Yellen will be more forthcoming over labour market improvement and inflation starting to move higher. There are no major economic data releases from the euro-zone over the coming week but ECB President Draghi will give testimony to the Committee of Economic and Monetary Affairs of the European Parliament at 1800 BST on Monday."

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