GBP reaction to BoE minutes may be modestly negative - RBS

By FXstreet.com | Updated July 30, 2014 AAA

FXStreet (Bali) - RBS FX Strategists provide their view on the upcoming BoE MPC minutes, noting that the GBP reaction may be modestly negative.



Key Quotes



"The Bank of England MPC minutes are released for the July meeting. Our base case scenario is a unanimous vote in favour of unchanged monetary policy. The BoE’s MPC should have had advanced notice of the upside surprise in June inflation, which was released a few weeks after the July meeting, which increases the risk of a dissenter."



"Nevertheless, we see August’s meeting, which coincides with new inflation forecasts and a fresh Quarterly Inflation Report, as more likely ground for hawkish dissenters. While no dissent and a largely unchanged message may be in the price, the GBP reaction may be modestly negative, as those anticipating a hawkish dissent and/or a more clear hint of a hawkish policy update with the August forecast round are disappointed."



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