FXStreet (Bali) - Sean Callow, FX Strategists at Westpac, reviews the key events on the docket for this Friday.
The Bank of Japan meeting concludes today, with a decision likely any time after 11:30am Tokyo. There is no discussion of policy change any time soon, but it is worth watching Governor Kuroda’s press conference from 4:30pm Syd/2:30pm Sing/HK. Risks to USD/JPY are probably to the downside judging by recent meetings where the pair has been sensitive to Kuroda’s lack of hints of further easing.
Asia’s data calendar is crowded. At 3pm Syd/1pm local we see Singapore’s Apr retail sales report where soft motor vehicle sales should keep the headline firmly negative y/y but the ex-MV measure should be nearer flat.
The main focus will be on China at 3:30pm Syd/1:30pm local, especially the May industrial production, where consensus is for a marginal improvement to 8.8% y/y from 8.7% in May, which was a 5 year low. Fixed asset investment is expected to tick down slightly to 17.2% on the YTD y/y measure. Finally, May retail sales is seen rising to 12.1% y/y from 11.9%. This is a flawed survey but still draws some attention. Westpac’s China data pulse had already surged to 71.9% as of last week so today’s data round should add to the positive, albeit modest, momentum. We see risks of a surprise tilted to the upside.
Europe’s calendar should have no impact on EUR while the US data slate is limited to May PPI and June consumer sentiment from the University of Michigan. Expectations are for a rise to 83.0 from 81.9 in April