The market has had a so-so performance over the past four weeks. The
SPDR S&P 500 ETF, a gauge of large
cap stocks, has risen 1.8% over this time period. Of the 931
ETFs tracked by Morningstar, approximately half are in positive territory during this time frame although only six of these ETFs have returned double-digits. While the market looks for direction, here are four ETFs that investors should keep an eye on.
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Remodeling
A surprise performance has been turned in by the
SPDR S&P Homebuilders ETF (NYSE:
XHB) over the last week as it has gained 3.1%. This move comes despite recent news that sales of new homes in December fell by 7.6% on a sequential basis. December capped the end of a year in which new home sales were 23% lower than the total for 2008.
Builders are hoping 2010 will be the beginning of a new chapter. Earlier this month,
D.R. Horton (NYSE:
DHI) reported its first quarterly profit in three years and said that it expects to remain profitable throughout the first-half of 2010. The company as well as the industry as a whole has benefited from low
mortgage rates and tax credits for first-time home buyers.
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Another ETF that has outperformed the market during the past four weeks has been the
SPDR S&P Retail ETF (NYSE:
XRT). This fund was up 4.5% during this run and retailers are beginning to gain confidence that consumer traffic will continue to recover this year despite a rocky start. Although it lost some of its value following yesterday's consumer confidence report, XRT presently is trading near its 52-week high.
A Crude Performance
Even though crude inventories have been pushing higher, the price of oil has fluctuated just below $80 per barrel. This upward
trend has lead to a 3% advance for the
United States Oil Fund (NYSE:
USO) over the past month.
On Wednesday, the Energy Department reported that crude stockpiles in the U.S. have climbed to their highest level since November and are forecasted to increase.
Investors in this ETF should look for this trend to reverse, otherwise it won't be long until oil is unable to continue to trade above the $80 threshold. The recent gains by USO are tentative at best.
Another ETF that has traded in lockstep with USO is the
United States Gasoline Fund (NYSE:
UGA). UGA rose 3.1% over past four weeks before dropping 2.5% on Thursday. This fund has benefited from increased consumer consumption in recent weeks as well as a predicted drop in
inventories.
The Bottom Line
There have not been many ETFs that have really torn the cover off the ball during the month of February. The homebuilders, retailers and commodities have been at the top of the heap, but could still have more room to run. As we roll into March, keep an eye on these ETFs to see if they are able to sustain their positive momentum or if these moves will prove to be short-lived. (To take full advantage of these vehicles, you need to know how they can fulfill certain strategies. To learn more about how ETFs can be used to improve your portfolio, read
Active Vs. Passive ETF Investing .)
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