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Tickers in this Article: HOG, TOL, ELY, LVS
While stocks almost across the board have been on a roll lately, the momentum can't keep up forever. There are several stocks out there that I think are overextended and ready to take a hit.

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Time to Turn the Key to the Off Position
Harley Davidson (NYSE:HOG) makes motorcycles are well engineered and pleasing to the eye, and long-term this company has the potential to do well in terms of earnings. But right now there are several factors that make me a bear on the stock. From a macro standpoint I am concerned about several things. First, higher interest rates are a likelihood at some point. Second, fuel prices are rising and this is likely to have an impact on consumer spending. Third, home prices are likely to remain in the doldrums due to the high unemployment rate. And that can be a problem because would-be riders could have a tough time borrowing against their abodes.

Of course, not everyone shares my belief that the stock is overextended. In fact, the AP reports that an RBC Capital analyst lifted his price target from $32 to $36. That is a big vote of confidence. However, those macroeconomic concerns listed above keep me from being so optimistic. Not to mention that it trades at a lofty 32 times the 2010 estimate, which is 95 cents a share.

Not Taking the Gamble
Las Vegas Sands (NYSE:LVS) is a big name in the casino business with interests in Sin City and Macau. In the longer term I am an optimist when it comes to the gaming business in the U.S. After all, gambling has been around for centuries and Americans in particular like to wager as is evidenced by the number of casinos in popular gaming areas like Atlantic City, Gulf Coast and Las Vegas. But in the near-term many of the macro concerns expressed above lead me to believe that the next year or so could be a tough one for gambling companies of varying stripes. In addition to my concerns about rising interest rates, increasing fuel prices might cause a pick up in airline ticket prices to areas like Las Vegas.

On the earnings front, Las Vegas Sands isn't the most appetizing play on Wall Street either. It is expected to earn just 28 cents per share this year and 60 cents per share in 2011, which isn't too eye catching with the stock trading at more than $23.

Toll Brothers (NYSE:TOL) is an incredibly creative company that builds large quality homes. However, the company's houses are expensive to purchase - it's not uncommon for some of its home prices to total $500,000 or much more in some cases - which is still a negative in the current economic environment. As far as the near-term goes, the high unemployment rate and the odds of increased interest rates are of concern. In short, with Americans watching their spending very carefully its unlikely that the homebuilding space in general is going to return to boom times in this writers opinion.

Toll Brothers is expected to lose 71 cents per share this year yet the stock sells at $20.50 as this is being written. Again on a price-to-expected earnings basis it appears the shares are way ahead of themselves and near-term there is sizable downside risk.

Let Others Play Through
With unemployment likely to remain high, we are going to see a huge surge in the number of rounds of golf played or the purchases of expensive golf equipment. Therefore I would be reluctant to dive into companies like Callaway Golf (NYSE:ELY) that are in the equipment business. Also, because there are so many frugal consumers out there and because of the competition in this space, it seems like the company could face some headwinds.

The stock is trading near it's 52-week high and its obvious that many investors likely disagree with me. However, with it trading at about 30 times this year's estimate I'm happy on the sidelines.

Bottom Line
The above companies are pretty solid, but their respective stocks are not a good value at this time. This is due largely to some of the aforementioned macroeconomic concerns and a lack of impressive earnings estimates. Each of these stocks has sizable downside potential from their current levels within the next year. (For more, see why Analyst Forecasts Spell Disaster For Some Stocks.)

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