Cereal and food producer
Kellogg (NYSE:
K) posted respectable, albeit modest growth during 2011. It may offer unexciting growth potential compared to other companies, but it does offer a solid combination of downside protection and income potential.
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Full Year Recap
Total reported sales advanced 6.5% to $12.4 billion. Management detailed that
organic growth was 4.5%, with the rest of the top-line increase attributed to positive currency fluctuations from international businesses. Sales improved in all four key geographic areas. North America logged a very respectable 5.6% increase and grew to account for roughly 67% of total sales. The next largest contributor was Europe, which grew 4.7% to nearly 18% of total sales. Fourth
quarter trends were more tepid in Europe, with sales declining 1.2% on
sovereign debt worries and concerns that will send the
European Union economies back into a recession. Latin America grew robustly at 13.7 to 8% of sales while Asia also reported strong growth of 11.8% to account for 7% of sales.
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Operating profit trends were more uneven. They fell in both North America and Europe, but grew in the emerging market regions. Given the heavy weighting towards the more maturely developed markets, consolidated segment profits fell a modest 0.7% to $2 billion. This flowed through to the bottom line, with
net income declining 1.3% to $1.2 billion. However, share
buybacks pushed
earnings per diluted share ahead by 2.4% to $3.38.
Free cash flow came in at $1 billion, or roughly $2.75 per diluted share.
(To know more about income statements, read Understanding The Income Statement.)
Outlook
For 2012, Kellogg projects sales growth between 4 and 5%, a roughly flat
operating income and earnings growth between 2 and 4%. Analysts currently project earnings of $3.48 per share. In other words, from a profit perspective, Kellogg will basically see a repeat of 2011.
The Bottom Line
With a
market share of roughly 33%, Kellogg dominates the breakfast cereal market. However, competition remains intense, with direct rivals including
General Mills (NYSE:
GIS),
Ralcorp (NYSE:
RAH) and other general food and beverage providers such as
Kraft (NYSE:
KFT) and
PepsiCo (NYSE:
PEP) are also competing in the space.
Given the intense competition and Kellogg's dependence on developed markets, rapid profit growth is going to be unlikely. Additionally, recently
commodity cost
inflation is denting
gross margins in the form of higher raw materials costs. Over the past decade, Kellogg has managed to
leverage annual sales growth of roughly 6% into annual profit gains closer to 9%. Based off trends over the past couple of years, growth is lagging this decent historical record.
However, the
forward P/E is still reasonable at less than 14 because Kellogg offers a high degree of operational stability. It also sports an above-average
dividend yield of 3.4%. Income-minded investors could consider shifting some of their
bond portfolio into Kellogg given its bond-like
returns and reasonable ability to preserve investor's
capital.
(For additional reading, check out 5 Must-Have Metrics For Value Investors.)
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At the time of writing, Ryan C. Fuhrmann did not own shares in any of the companies mentioned in this article.