"The cult of inflation may only have just begun." That was a bold and eye-opening sentiment legendary bond fund manager Bill Gross expressed in the summer of 2012.

What on Earth is he talking about? After all, inflation has been declining for more than three decades and is nowhere to be found in today's economy.

But Gross has a point.

Inflation was virtually non-existent in the 1930s and the 1960s, but came roaring back in each of the subsequent decades. Will past be prologue?

There's a decent chance we'll eventually be prepping for a fresh bout of inflation for one simple reason: The Federal Reserve will eventually need to reverse course, unwinding its massive quantitative easing programs that have taken many bonds off the market. As the Fed pushes all of those bonds back into the market, many fear it will trigger an unwanted (though not unexpected) rise in bond yields and inflation.

Inflation is a pernicious beast. It eats away at the value of many assets like stocks, leaving many poorer in the process. In the 1970s, the S&P 500 rose less than 20% in value. Yet during that decade, inflation soared, meaning the inflation-adjusted value of the S&P 500 actually dropped by more than 25% (before dividends are accounted for). Indeed, traditional stocks always tend to fare poorly at times of high inflation (though it's worth noting that a modest move up in inflation from current levels would not necessarily be so deleterious to stocks).

Gold bugs rule Fearing inflation's return, investors have flocked to gold, sending its price up from less than $500 in the middle of the last decade to a recent $1,675.



It's fair to wonder whether that stunning upward move already reflects any inflationary times to come. So rather than simply sit on a cache of the shiny yellow metal, you should take note of four other investments that are likely to hold their value if we return to inflationary times.

Here they are...

1. Commodities and real assets
Gold is just one of many commodities that tend to rise in price as the corrosive effects of inflation start to bite. Other precious metals such as silver and platinum have traditionally served as inflation hedges as well, as have other commodities such as copper, steel and grains. The cost to process these goods rises in inflationary environments, which producers must pass on to buyers. Even in a weak economic environment, these items can still rise in value as producers cut output to the point where historical processing profit levels are restored. But the greatest hard-asset inflation hedge may simply be in housing. This is because home prices tend to reflect the cost of construction, with a built-in profit mark-up for builders. Inflation causes all of the materials and labor associated with construction to rise in price. Anyone who bought a home in the 1960s saw their investment surge in value by the 1980s thanks to high inflation -- even as their monthly mortgage payments stayed flat.


2. Foreign stocks
Rising inflation tends to erode the value of a currency, as foreign-exchange traders shift funds to other markets where inflation trends remain in check. The absolute rate of inflation doesn\'t matter to them; simply the direction. So even though Brazil\'s inflation is the 5% to 6% range, which is well above our own 2% inflation rate, currency exchange rates already reflect that. So if our inflation rises toward the rate of Brazil\'s, then the Brazilian real is likely to strengthen against the U.S. dollar. As a result, an investment in Brazilian stocks would be boosted by the strengthening local currency. In recent years, the Australian dollar, the Swiss franc and the Brazilian real have all strengthened against the dollar, boosting the returns of U.S. investors in those markets. Which countries\' currencies will appreciate against the dollar in the years ahead? It\'s hard to know, which is why a broad-based and balanced approach to foreign stocks is the wisest path.


3. High-yield bonds
Anyone investing back in the 1970s will tell you that bonds were the name of the game. Inflation began to move up (and eventually surpass) double-digit rates, but so did bond yields. Of course, any investor who owned bonds before the inflationary crisis of the 1970s missed out, and bond funds fell in value in the 1970s as bond yields soared. That\'s why it\'s a bit premature to seek out the inflation hedge of bonds now. Instead, keep an eye on inflation and rates in the years ahead. At some point in the years ahead, investors will likely be treated to robust yields in some of the safest fixed-income arenas again. Investors can hedge against any inflation to come by buying high-yield bonds. These bonds, typically issued by companies that are just a notch below "blue-chip" status, already offer impressive yields.


4. Stocks with rising dividends
Of course, many companies operate in inflation-resistant industries. If prices rise, then companies like Coca-Cola (NYSE: KO), Anheuser-Busch InBev (NYSE: BUD) and Procter & Gamble (NYSE: PG) simply raise the prices of their own products. This enables these kinds of companies to boost their dividends at a consistent rate. Let\'s look at how Coca-Cola performed in the 1970s. In 1970, the company paid out a dividend of $1.44 a share. By the end of the decade, that payout had risen to $3.92 a share (adjusting for a 2-for-1 stock split in 1977). That works out to be a 12% compound annual growth rate, which is even higher than that decade\'s inflation rate of 8%.

Risks to Consider: These various asset classes are also affected by other factors that influence prices. For example, real estate values have already begun to rebound prior to the appearance of higher inflation, but they could take a short-term hit if rising inflation took a toll on the U.S. economy. In this instance, it's important to see an asset such as real estate as a long-term inflation hedge, though it may not act as one in any short-term time frame.

Action to Take --> The stock market has risen sharply since the early 1980s, in part because inflation has been steadily falling, making inflation-sensitive assets like bonds relatively less appealing. Yet this era may be coming to an end, so investors need to brush up on their options now.

As noted earlier, a moderate rise in inflation to the 3% to 4% range would not necessarily be bad news for U.S. stocks. Indeed, the move up on rates may be a signal of rising economic activity, which is a clear positive for stocks. But a move in inflation into the mid to upper single-digits would likely be a strong headwind for stocks. Simply put, stocks fail to hold their own, on an inflation-adjusted basis, when inflation is at abnormally high levels. That was surely the lesson learned in the 1970s.

Related Articles
  1. Stock Analysis

    Analyzing Altria's Return on Equity (ROE) (MO)

    Learn about Altria Group's return on equity (ROE) and analyze net profit margin, asset turnover and financial leverage to determine what is causing its high ROE.
  2. Investing News

    Icahn's Bet on Cheniere Energy: Should You Follow?

    Investing legend Carl Icahn continues to lose money on Cheniere Energy, but he's increasing his stake. Should you follow his lead?
  3. Stock Analysis

    Analyzing Google's Return on Equity (ROE) (GOOGL)

    Learn about Alphabet's return on equity. How has its ROE changed over time, how does it compare to its peers and what factors are driving ROE for the company?
  4. Investing News

    Is Buffett's Bet on Oil Right for You? (XOM, PSX)

    Oil stocks are getting trounced, but Warren Buffett still likes one of them. Should you follow the leader?
  5. Investing News

    Chipotle Served with Criminal Probe

    Chipotle's beat muted expectations and got a clear bill from the CDC, but it now appears that an investigation into its E.coli breakout has expanded.
  6. Stock Analysis

    Analyzing Sprint Corp's Return on Equity (ROE) (S)

    Learn about Sprint's return on equity. Find out why its ROE is negative and how asset turnover and financial leverage impact ROE relative to Sprint's peers.
  7. Stock Analysis

    Why Alphabet is the Best of the 'FANGs' for 2016

    Alphabet just impressed the street, but is it the best FANG stock?
  8. Budgeting

    Plated Review, Is It Worth It?

    Take a closer look at the ready-to-cook meal service, Plated, and learn how the company can help you take the hassle out of home cooking.
  9. Investing News

    How China's Economy is Now Like America's

    China's economy could take the global economy down with it; why that might be good news in the grand scheme.
  10. Investing News

    A 2016 Outlook: What January 2009 Can Teach Us

    January 2009 and January 2016 were similar from an investment standpoint, but from a forward-looking perspective, they were very different.
RELATED FAQS
  1. How do dividends affect retained earnings?

    When a company issues a cash dividend to its shareholders, the retained earnings listed on the balance sheet are reduced ... Read Full Answer >>
  2. What is the difference between called-up share capital and paid-up share capital?

    The difference between called-up share capital and paid-up share capital is investors have already paid in full for paid-up ... Read Full Answer >>
  3. Why would a corporation issue convertible bonds?

    A convertible bond represents a hybrid security that has bond and equity features; this type of bond allows the conversion ... Read Full Answer >>
  4. How does additional paid in capital affect retained earnings?

    Both additional paid-in capital and retained earnings are entries under the shareholders' equity section of a company's balance ... Read Full Answer >>
  5. What types of capital are not considered share capital?

    The money a business uses to fund operations or growth is called capital, and there are a number of capital sources available. ... Read Full Answer >>
  6. What is the difference between issued share capital and subscribed share capital?

    The difference between subscribed share capital and issued share capital is the former relates to the amount of stock for ... Read Full Answer >>
COMPANIES IN THIS ARTICLE
Trading Center