Adaptive Expectations Hypothesis

DEFINITION of 'Adaptive Expectations Hypothesis'

A hypothesis stating that individuals make investment decisions based on the direction of recent historical data, such as past inflation rates, and adjust the data (based on their expectations) to predict future rates.

BREAKING DOWN 'Adaptive Expectations Hypothesis'

For example, if inflation over the last 10 years has been running in the 2-3% range, investors would use an inflation expectation of that range when making investment decisions. Consequently, if a temporary extreme fluctuation in inflation occurred recently, such as a cost-push inflation phenomenon, investors will overestimate the movement of inflation rates in the future. The opposite would occur in a demand-pull inflationary environment.

RELATED TERMS
  1. Inflation

    The rate at which the general level of prices for goods and services ...
  2. Bond

    A debt investment in which an investor loans money to an entity ...
  3. Demand-Pull Inflation

    A term used in Keynesian economics to describe the scenario that ...
  4. Expectations Theory

    The hypothesis that long-term interest rates contain a prediction ...
  5. Cost-Push Inflation

    A phenomenon in which the general price levels rise (inflation) ...
  6. Tight Monetary Policy

    A course of action undertaken by the Federal Reserve to constrict ...
Related Articles
  1. Entrepreneurship

    Cost-Push Inflation Versus Demand-Pull Inflation

    Gain a deeper understanding of aggregate supply and demand, forces which raise the price of goods and services.
  2. Active Trading Fundamentals

    Understanding Investor Behavior

    Discover how some strange human tendencies can play out in the market, posing the question: are we really rational?
  3. Retirement

    Bond Basics Tutorial

    Investing in bonds - What are they, and do they belong in your portfolio?
  4. Bonds & Fixed Income

    Advanced Bond Concepts

    Learn the complex concepts and calculations for trading bonds including bond pricing, yield, term structure of interest rates and duration.
  5. Fundamental Analysis

    5 Basic Financial Ratios And What They Reveal

    Understanding financial ratios can help investors pick strong stocks and build wealth. Here are five to know.
  6. Investing

    How Rising Interest Rates Affect Junk Bonds

    We examine the impact of rising interest rates on higher-yielding bonds.
  7. Mutual Funds & ETFs

    The 4 Best Fidelity Funds for Income Seekers in 2016

    Discover the four best fixed-income mutual funds administered and managed by Fidelity Investments suitable for income-seeking investors.
  8. Investing

    What Investors Need to Know About Returns in 2016

    Last year wasn’t a great one for investors seeking solid returns, so here are three things we believe all investors need to know about returns in 2016.
  9. Mutual Funds & ETFs

    The 4 Best Vanguard Funds for Income Seekers in 2016

    Discover four mutual funds administered and managed by the Vanguard Group that would be suitable for income-seeking investors for 2016.
  10. Economics

    The Basics Of Business Forecasting

    Whether business forecasts pertain to finances, growth, or raw materials, it’s important to remember that a forecast is little more than an informed guess.
RELATED FAQS
  1. What is finance?

    "Finance" is a broad term that describes two related activities: the study of how money is managed and the actual process ... Read Full Answer >>
  2. What is the difference between positive and normative economics?

    Positive economics is objective and fact based, while normative economics is subjective and value based. Positive economic ... Read Full Answer >>
  3. What are the maximum Social Security disability benefits?

    The average Social Security disability benefit amount for a recipient of Social Security Disability Insurance (SSDI) in 2 ... Read Full Answer >>
  4. How do I calculate the future value of an annuity?

    When planning for retirement, it is important to have a good idea of how much income you can rely on each year. There are ... Read Full Answer >>
  5. Have hedge funds eroded market opportunities?

    Hedge funds have not eroded market opportunities for longer-term investors. Many investors incorrectly assume they cannot ... Read Full Answer >>
  6. Are high yield bonds a good investment?

    Bonds are rated according to their risk of default by independent credit rating agencies such as Moody's, Standard & ... Read Full Answer >>
Hot Definitions
  1. Super Bowl Indicator

    An indicator based on the belief that a Super Bowl win for a team from the old AFL (AFC division) foretells a decline in ...
  2. Flight To Quality

    The action of investors moving their capital away from riskier investments to the safest possible investment vehicles. This ...
  3. Discouraged Worker

    A person who is eligible for employment and is able to work, but is currently unemployed and has not attempted to find employment ...
  4. Ponzimonium

    After Bernard Madoff's $65 billion Ponzi scheme was revealed, many new (smaller-scale) Ponzi schemers became exposed. Ponzimonium ...
  5. Quarterly Earnings Report

    A quarterly filing made by public companies to report their performance. Included in earnings reports are items such as net ...
Trading Center