Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average - ARIMA

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DEFINITION of 'Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average - ARIMA'

A statistical analysis model that uses time series data to predict future trends. It is a form of regression analysis that seeks to predict future movements along the seemingly random walk taken by stocks and the financial market by examining the differences between values in the series instead of using the actual data values. Lags of the differenced series are referred to as "autoregressive" and lags within forecasted data are referred to as "moving average."

INVESTOPEDIA EXPLAINS 'Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average - ARIMA'

This model type is generally referred to as ARIMA(p,d,q), with the integers referring to the autoregressive, integrated and moving average parts of the data set, respectively. ARIMA modeling can take into account trends, seasonality, cycles, errors and non-stationary aspects of a data set when making forecasts.

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