Compound Probability

AAA

DEFINITION of 'Compound Probability'

A mathematical term relating to the likeliness of two independent events occurring. The compound probability is equal to the probability of the first event multiplied by the probability of the second event. Compound probabilities are used by insurance underwriters to assess risks and assign premiums to various insurance products.

BREAKING DOWN 'Compound Probability'

The most basic example of compound probability is flipping a coin twice. If the probability of getting heads is 50% (.50), then the chances of getting heads twice in a row would be (.50 X .50), or .25 (25%).


As it relates to insurance, underwriters may wish to know, for example, if both members of a married couple will reach the age of 75, given their independent probabilities. Or, the underwriter may want to know the odds that two major hurricanes hit a given geographical region within a certain time frame. The results of their math will determine how much to charge for insuring people or property.

RELATED TERMS
  1. Insurance Underwriter

    A financial professional that evaluates the risks of insuring ...
  2. Conditional Probability

    Probability of an event or outcome based on the occurrence of ...
  3. Premium

    1. The total cost of an option. 2. The difference between the ...
  4. Actuary

    A professional statistician working for an insurance company. ...
  5. Casualty Insurance

    A broad category of coverage against loss of property, damage ...
  6. Compound Annual Growth Rate - CAGR

    The Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) is the mean annual growth ...
Related Articles
  1. Fundamental Analysis

    Find The Right Fit With Probability Distributions

    Discover a few of the most popular probability distributions and how to calculate them.
  2. Insurance

    Is Insurance Underwriting Right For You?

    If you have excellent analytical skills and an eye for detail, this may be your calling.
  3. Home & Auto

    Selecting The Right Mix Of Insurance Benefits

    Choosing employee benefits involves weighing the probability you will need them against taxes and cost.
  4. Active Trading Fundamentals

    Bet Smarter With The Monte Carlo Simulation

    This technique can reduce uncertainty in estimating future outcomes.
  5. Insurance

    Umbrella Insurance: You May Need It, Too

    If you have assets to protect – or just run a business from home – you could be unpleasantly surprised at how much you need umbrella insurance.
  6. Economics

    The Problem With Today’s Headline Economic Data

    Headwinds have kept the U.S. growth more moderate than in the past–including leverage levels and an aging population—and the latest GDP revisions prove it.
  7. Economics

    Explaining the Participation Rate

    The participation rate is the percentage of civilians who are either employed or unemployed and looking for a job.
  8. Insurance

    Who is a Beneficiary?

    A beneficiary is a person or entity that receives funds, assets, property or other benefits from a trust, will, or life insurance policy.
  9. Mutual Funds & ETFs

    ETF Analysis: Guggenheim Enhanced Short Dur

    Find out about the Guggenheim Enhanced Short Duration ETF, and learn detailed information about this fund that focuses on fixed-income securities.
  10. Mutual Funds & ETFs

    ETF Analysis: iShares Morningstar Small-Cap Value

    Find out about the Shares Morningstar Small-Cap Value ETF, and learn detailed information about this exchange-traded fund that focuses on small-cap equities.
RELATED FAQS
  1. What assumptions are made when conducting a t-test?

    The common assumptions made when doing a t-test include those regarding the scale of measurement, random sampling, normality ... Read Full Answer >>
  2. What are some of the more common types of regressions investors can use?

    The most common types of regression an investor can use are linear regressions and multiple linear regressions. Regressions ... Read Full Answer >>
  3. What types of assets lower portfolio variance?

    Assets that have a negative correlation with each other reduce portfolio variance. Variance is one measure of the volatility ... Read Full Answer >>
  4. When is it better to use systematic over simple random sampling?

    Under simple random sampling, a sample of items is chosen randomly from a population, and each item has an equal probability ... Read Full Answer >>
  5. What are some common financial sampling methods?

    There are two areas in finance where sampling is very important: hypothesis testing and auditing. The type of sampling methods ... Read Full Answer >>
  6. What level of reserve ratios is typical for an insurance company to protect against ...

    In the United States, and most developed nations, regulators impose required statutory capital reserve ratios on insurance ... Read Full Answer >>

You May Also Like

Hot Definitions
  1. Election Period

    The period of time during which an investor who owns an extendable or retractable bond must indicate to the issuer whether ...
  2. Shanghai Stock Exchange

    The largest stock exchange in mainland China, the Shanghai Stock Exchange is a nonprofit organization run by the China Securities ...
  3. Dead Cat Bounce

    A temporary recovery from a prolonged decline or bear market, followed by the continuation of the downtrend. A dead cat bounce ...
  4. Bear Market

    A market condition in which the prices of securities are falling, and widespread pessimism causes the negative sentiment ...
  5. Alligator Spread

    An unprofitable spread that occurs as a result of large commissions charged on the transaction, regardless of favorable market ...
  6. Tiger Cub Economies

    The four Southeast Asian economies of Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines and Thailand. Tiger cub economy indicates that ...
Trading Center
×

You are using adblocking software

Want access to all of Investopedia? Add us to your “whitelist”
so you'll never miss a feature!