What is 'Dividend Signaling'
Dividend signaling is a theory suggesting that when a company announces an increase in dividend payouts, it is an indication it possesses positive future prospects. The thought behind this theory is directly tied to game theory; managers with good investment potential are more likely to signal. While the concept of dividend signaling has been widely contested, the theory is still a key concept utilized by proponents of inefficient markets.
BREAKING DOWN 'Dividend Signaling'Because the dividend signaling theory has been treated with a skeptical eye by analysts and investors, regular testing of the theory has been performed. On the whole, studies indicate dividend signaling does occur. Increases in a company's dividend payout generally forecast positive future performance of the company's stock, while conversely, decreases in dividend payouts tend to accurately portend negative future performance by the company.
Testing the Theory
Two professors at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), James Poterba and Lawrence Summers, wrote a series of papers from 1983 to 1985 that documented a testing of the signaling theory. After obtaining empirical data on the relative market value of dividends and capital gains, the effect of dividend taxation on dividend payout and the effect of dividend taxation on investment, Poterba and Lawrence developed a "traditional view" of dividends that includes the theories that dividends signal some private information about profitability, and stock prices tend to rise when a company announces an increase in dividend payouts and fall when dividends are set to be decreased. The researchers concluded there is no discernible difference between the hypothesis that an increased dividend conveys good news and the hypothesis that the dividend increase is itself the good news for investors.
The dividend signaling theory suggests companies paying the highest level of dividends are, or should be, more profitable than otherwise identical companies, from an investor’s viewpoint, paying smaller levels of dividends. This basic thought indicates the signaling theory can be beaten if an investor examines how extensively current dividends act as predictors of future earnings. Earlier studies, conducted from 1973 to 1978, drew the conclusion that a firm’s dividends are basically unrelated to the earnings that follow. Still, a study in 1987 concluded that analysts typically correct earnings forecasts as a response to unexpected changes in dividend payouts and these corrections were a rational response.
Dividend Signaling in the Real World
A company with a lengthy history of dividend increases each year is signaling to the market its management and board see profits in the future. Dividends are not increased unless the board is certain the cost can be sustained. There are several stocks with histories that look like a good bet for investors seeking ever-increasing dividends, such as National Fuel Gas, the FedEx Corporation and the Franco-Nevada Corporation.