What is an 'Economic Indicator'
An economic indicator is a piece of economic data, usually of macroeconomic scale, that is used by analysts to interpret current or future investment possibilities or to judge the overall health of an economy. Economic indicators can be anything the investor chooses, but specific pieces of data released by government and non-profit organizations have become widely followed. Such indicators include but aren't limited to: the consumer price index (CPI), gross domestic product (GDP), unemployment figures and the price of crude oil.
BREAKING DOWN 'Economic Indicator'Economic indicators are key statistics that indicate the direction of an economy. While the indicators can be numerous, there are three broad categories of economic indicators: leading indicators, coincident indicators and lagging indicators.
Leading indicators, such as consumer durables, net business formations and share prices, are used to predict the future movements of an economy. Coincident indicators, which include such things as GDP, employment levels and retail sales, are seen with the occurrence of specific economic activities. Finally, lagging indicators, such as gross national product (GNP), CPI, unemployment rates and interest rates, are only seen after a specific economic activity occurs. Most of these economic indicators have a specific schedule for release, allowing investors to prepare for and plan on seeing certain information at certain times of the month and year.
Problems With Economic Indicators
An economic indicator is only useful if one interprets it correctly. History has shown strong correlations between economic growth, as measured by GDP, and corporate profit growth. However, determining whether a specific company may grow its earnings based on one indicator of GDP is nearly impossible. Indicators provide signs along the road, but the best investors utilize many economic indicators, combining them to glean insight into looking patterns and verifications within multiple sets of data.
An Example of Economic Indicators
Economic indicators are often combined to produce a composite view of economic performance. For example, the state of Florida, on July 11, 2016, released an analysis on its economic indicators for the month of May 2016. The analysis consisted of its CPI, employment levels, unemployment insurance, unemployment rate, real estate and housing price index.
It was found that Florida's CPI for the month of May 2016 was slightly higher than the national average. Employment within the state grew by 24,000 jobs from April to May, a good sign. Unemployment claims, measured on a four-week moving average, remained well below the state's peak in 2009, which resulted in an unemployment rate of 4.7%, equal to the national average for May. Finally, new homes in Florida dropped by 9.1% and housing prices increased by 2%, which may cause slight concern.