DEFINITION of 'Empirical Probability'
A form of probability that is based on some event occurring, which is calculated using collected empirical evidence. An empirical probability is closely related to the relative frequency in a given probability distribution.
BREAKING DOWN 'Empirical Probability'
In order for a theory to be proved or disproved, empirical evidence must be collected. An empirical study will be performed using actual market data. For example, many empirical studies have been conducted on the capital asset pricing model (CAPM), and the results are slightly mixed.
In some analyses, the model does hold in real world situations, but most studies have disproved the model for projecting returns. Although the model is not completely valid, that is not to say there is no utility associated with using the CAPM. For instance, the CAPM is often used to estimate a company's weighted average cost of capital.

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Capital Asset Pricing Model  CAPM
CAPM is a model that describes the relationship between risk and expected return. 
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The empirical rule provides a quick estimate of the spread of data in a normal statistical distribution. 
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What is the formula for calculating the capital asset pricing model (CAPM)?
Learn about the capital asset pricing model, or CAPM, and how this formula is used to determine the expected rate of return ... Read Answer >> 
How do I use the CAPM (capital asset pricing model) to determine the cost of equity?
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