Empirical Probability

AAA

DEFINITION of 'Empirical Probability'

A form of probability that is based on some event occurring, which is calculated using collected empirical evidence. An empirical probability is closely related to the relative frequency in a given probability distribution.

INVESTOPEDIA EXPLAINS 'Empirical Probability'

In order for a theory to be proved or disproved, empirical evidence must be collected. An empirical study will be performed using actual market data. For example, many empirical studies have been conducted on the capital asset pricing model (CAPM), and the results are slightly mixed.

In some analyses, the model does hold in real world situations, but most studies have disproved the model for projecting returns. Although the model is not completely valid, that is not to say there is no utility associated with using the CAPM. For instance, the CAPM is often used to estimate a company's weighted average cost of capital.

RELATED TERMS
  1. Probability Distribution

    A statistical function that describes all the possible values ...
  2. Capital Asset Pricing Model - CAPM

    A model that describes the relationship between risk and expected ...
  3. Modern Portfolio Theory - MPT

    A theory on how risk-averse investors can construct portfolios ...
  4. Mutual Fund Theorem

    An investing theory, postulated by Nobel laureate James Tobin, ...
  5. Beta

    A measure of the volatility, or systematic risk, of a security ...
  6. A Priori Probability

    Probability calculated by logically examining existing information. ...
RELATED FAQS
  1. What does the rule of 70 indicate about a country's future economic growth?

    The rule of 70 could be used to indicate the approximate number of years that it would take a company's economic growth to ... Read Full Answer >>
  2. How is the rule of 70 related to the growth rate of a variable?

    The rule of 70 is related to the growth rate of a variable because it uses the growth rate in its approximation of the number ... Read Full Answer >>
  3. What is a "linear" exposure in Value at Risk (VaR) calculation?

    A linear exposure in the value-at-risk, or VaR, calculation is represented by positions in stocks, bonds, commodities or ... Read Full Answer >>
  4. What is the criteria for a simple random sample?

    Simple random sampling is the most basic form of sampling and can be a component of more precise, more complex sampling methods. ... Read Full Answer >>
  5. What are some examples of ways that sensitivity analysis can be used?

    Sensitivity analysis is an analysis method that is used to identify how much variations in the input values for a given variable ... Read Full Answer >>
  6. What are the benefits of using ceteris paribus assumptions in economics?

    Most, though not all, economists rely on ceteris paribus conditions to build and test economic models. The reason they do ... Read Full Answer >>
Related Articles
  1. Investing Basics

    Beta: Know The Risk

    Beta says something about price risk, but how much does it say about fundamental risk factors? Find out here.
  2. Fundamental Analysis

    Find The Right Fit With Probability Distributions

    Discover a few of the most popular probability distributions and how to calculate them.
  3. Fundamental Analysis

    The Capital Asset Pricing Model: An Overview

    CAPM helps you determine what return you deserve for putting your money at risk.
  4. Options & Futures

    An Introduction To Value at Risk (VAR)

    Volatility is not the only way to measure risk. Learn about the "new science of risk management".
  5. Fundamental Analysis

    Calculating Future Value

    Future value is the value of an asset or cash at a specified date in the future that is equivalent in value to a specified sum today.
  6. Economics

    What is Deadweight Loss?

    Mainly used in economics, deadweight loss can be applied to any deficiency caused by an inefficient allocation of resources.
  7. Investing

    The Strong Dollar’s (Real) Toll On Tech Stocks

    A large portion of U.S. technology companies’ sales occur overseas, given the strong international business and consumer demand from many U.S. tech firms.
  8. Fundamental Analysis

    How to Calculate a Coverage Ratio

    In broad terms, the higher the coverage ratio, the better the ability of the enterprise to fulfill its obligations to its lenders.
  9. Economics

    How to Do a Cost-Benefit Analysis

    The benefits of a given situation or business-related action are summed and then the costs associated with taking that action are subtracted.
  10. Fundamental Analysis

    Calculating the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI)

    The Herfindhal-Hirschman Index, (HHI) is a measure of market concentration and competition among market participants.

You May Also Like

Hot Definitions
  1. Butterfly Spread

    A neutral option strategy combining bull and bear spreads. Butterfly spreads use four option contracts with the same expiration ...
  2. Unlevered Beta

    A type of metric that compares the risk of an unlevered company to the risk of the market. The unlevered beta is the beta ...
  3. Moving Average - MA

    A widely used indicator in technical analysis that helps smooth out price action by filtering out the “noise” from random ...
  4. Yield Curve

    A line that plots the interest rates, at a set point in time, of bonds having equal credit quality, but differing maturity ...
  5. Productivity

    An economic measure of output per unit of input. Inputs include labor and capital, while output is typically measured in ...
  6. Variance

    The spread between numbers in a data set, measuring Variance is calculated by taking the differences between each number ...
Trading Center