Ex-Post Risk


DEFINITION of 'Ex-Post Risk'

A type of risk measurement technique that uses historic returns to predict the riskiness of a certain investment in the future. This type of risk measure is the equivalent of the statistical variance of an asset's returns relative to its mean.


Using historic returns as a measure of future risk has been a traditional method used by investors to determine the riskiness of a given asset. Ex-post risk is often used in value at risk analysis - a tool used to give investors a best estimate of the maximum amount of loss that they could expect to incur on any given trading day.

  1. Variance

    The spread between numbers in a data set, measuring Variance ...
  2. Tracking Error

    A divergence between the price behavior of a position or a portfolio ...
  3. Mean

    The simple mathematical average of a set of two or more numbers. ...
  4. Risk

    The chance that an investment's actual return will be different ...
  5. Ex-Post

    Another term for actual returns. Ex-post translated from Latin ...
  6. Value At Risk - VaR

    A statistical technique used to measure and quantify the level ...
Related Articles
  1. Options & Futures

    Moral Hazards: A Bump In The Contract Road

    Learn how this phenomenon can cause a party in an agreement to behave differently than expected.
  2. Stock Analysis

    The Biggest Risks of Investing in Netflix Stock

    Examine the current state of Netflix Inc., and learn about three of the major fundamental risks that the company is currently facing.
  3. Mutual Funds & ETFs

    3 Fixed Income ETFs in the Mining Sector

    Learn about the top three metals and mining exchange-traded funds (ETFs), and explore analyses of their characteristics and how investors can benefit from these ETFs.
  4. Mutual Funds & ETFs

    Top 3 Muni California Mutual Funds

    Discover analyses of the top three California municipal bond mutual funds, and learn about their characteristics, historical performance and suitability.
  5. Mutual Funds & ETFs

    Mutual Funds Are Not FDIC Insured: Here Is Why

    Find out why mutual funds are not insured by the FDIC, including why the FDIC was created and how to minimize your risk with educated mutual fund investments.
  6. Investing

    How to Win More by Losing Less in Today’s Markets

    The further you fall, the harder it is to climb back up. It’s a universal truth that is painfully apparent in the investing world.
  7. Mutual Funds & ETFs

    Top 4 Investment Grade Corporate Bonds ETFs

    Discover detailed analysis and information about some of the top exchange-traded funds (ETFs) that offer exposure to the investment-grade corporate bond market.
  8. Investing

    Watch Your Duration When Rates Rise

    While recent market volatility is leading investors to look for the nearest exit, here are some suggestions for bond exposure in attractive sectors.
  9. Mutual Funds & ETFs

    Finding Lower Risk, Higher Return Mutual Funds

    Discover detailed analysis of lower-risk, higher-return balanced mutual funds, and learn about the characteristics of this type of mutual fund.
  10. Investing

    Yellow Light Trade Risk Management

    Being in the stock market for so long I tend to look at the world through the eyes of a trader, but how to decide when we are presented with two options?
  1. Is tracking error a significant measure for determining ex-post risk?

    Before we answer your question, let's first define tracking error and ex-post risk. Tracking error refers to the amount by ... Read Full Answer >>
  2. Why have mutual funds become so popular?

    Mutual funds have become an incredibly popular option for a wide variety of investors. This is primarily due to the automatic ... Read Full Answer >>
  3. Can your car insurance company check your driving record?

    While your auto insurance company cannot pull your full motor vehicle report, or MVR, it does pull a record summary that ... Read Full Answer >>
  4. Is my IRA/Roth IRA FDIC-Insured?

    The Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, or FDIC, is a government-run agency that provides protection against losses if ... Read Full Answer >>
  5. Does index trading increase market vulnerability?

    The rise of index trading may increase the overall vulnerability of the stock market due to increased correlations between ... Read Full Answer >>
  6. What are common delta hedging strategies?

    The term delta refers to the change in price of an underlying stock or exchange-traded fund (ETF) as compared to the corresponding ... Read Full Answer >>

You May Also Like

Hot Definitions
  1. Term Deposit

    A deposit held at a financial institution that has a fixed term, and guarantees return of principal.
  2. Zero-Sum Game

    A situation in which one person’s gain is equivalent to another’s loss, so that the net change in wealth or benefit is zero. ...
  3. Capitalization Rate

    The rate of return on a real estate investment property based on the income that the property is expected to generate.
  4. Gross Profit

    A company's total revenue (equivalent to total sales) minus the cost of goods sold. Gross profit is the profit a company ...
  5. Revenue

    The amount of money that a company actually receives during a specific period, including discounts and deductions for returned ...
  6. Normal Profit

    An economic condition occurring when the difference between a firm’s total revenue and total cost is equal to zero.
Trading Center
You are using adblocking software

Want access to all of Investopedia? Add us to your “whitelist”
so you'll never miss a feature!