Inverted Yield Curve

AAA

DEFINITION of 'Inverted Yield Curve'

An interest rate environment in which long-term debt instruments have a lower yield than short-term debt instruments of the same credit quality. This type of yield curve is the rarest of the three main curve types and is considered to be a predictor of economic recession.

Inverted Yield Curve



Partial inversion occurs when only some of the short-term Treasuries (five or 10 years) have higher yields than the 30-year Treasuries do. An inverted yield curve is sometimes referred to as a "negative yield curve".

VIDEO

Loading the player...

BREAKING DOWN 'Inverted Yield Curve'

Historically, inversions of the yield curve have preceded many of the U.S. recessions. Due to this historical correlation, the yield curve is often seen as an accurate forecast of the turning points of the business cycle. A recent example is when the U.S. Treasury yield curve inverted in 2000 just before the U.S. equity markets collapsed. An inverse yield curve predicts lower interest rates in the future as longer-term bonds are being demanded, sending the yields down.

RELATED TERMS
  1. Inverted Market

    In the context of options and futures, this is when the current ...
  2. Interest Rate

    The amount charged, expressed as a percentage of principal, by ...
  3. Maturity Date

    The date on which the principal amount of a note, draft, acceptance ...
  4. Yield Curve

    A line that plots the interest rates, at a set point in time, ...
  5. Leading Indicator

    A measurable economic factor that changes before the economy ...
  6. U.S. Treasury

    Created in 1798, the United States Department of the Treasury ...
Related Articles
  1. Bonds & Fixed Income

    The Impact Of An Inverted Yield Curve

    Find out what happens when short-term interest rates exceed long-term rates.
  2. Active Trading Fundamentals

    Recession: What Does It Mean To Investors?

    Understanding the business cycle and your own investment style can help you cope with an economic decline.
  3. Investing Basics

    Interest Rates And Your Bond Investments

    By understanding the factors that influence interest rates, you can learn to anticipate their movement and profit from it.
  4. Bonds & Fixed Income

    Bond Yield Curve Holds Predictive Powers

    This measure can shed light on future economic activity, inflation levels and interest rates.
  5. Bonds & Fixed Income

    Advanced Bond Concepts

    Learn the complex concepts and calculations for trading bonds including bond pricing, yield, term structure of interest rates and duration.
  6. Economics

    Is a Recession Coming?

    In the space of a week, the VIX Index, a measure of market volatility, spiked from 13, suggesting extreme complacency, to over 50, evidencing total panic.
  7. Mutual Funds & ETFs

    ETF Analysis: iShares National AMT-Free Muni Bond

    Take an in-depth look at the iShares National AMT-Free Municipal Bond ETF, a highly diverse and very popular muni bond fund.
  8. Investing News

    Fund Firm Jolts: Pimco's Isn't The First Or Worst

    When you business is built on prudence and trust, a lot can go wrong to cost you tons of clients and assets. Here are a few examples.
  9. Mutual Funds & ETFs

    ETF Analysis: iShares JPMorgan USD Emerg Markets Bond

    Learn about the iShares JPMorgan USD Emerging Markets Bond fund, which invests in bonds of sovereign and quasi-sovereign entities from emerging markets.
  10. Investing Basics

    What's a Treasury Note?

    A treasury note is a U.S. government debt security that offers a fixed interest rate and a maturity date that ranges between one and 10 years.
RELATED FAQS
  1. What are the maximum Social Security disability benefits?

    The maximum Social Security disability benefit amount for a single eligible person in 2015 is $1,165 per month, but you can ... Read Full Answer >>
  2. What is the relationship between the current yield and risk?

    The general relationship between current yield and risk is that they increase in correlation to one another. A higher current ... Read Full Answer >>
  3. How does the bond market react to changes in the Federal Funds Rate?

    The bond market is highly sensitive to changes in the federal funds rate. When the Federal Reserve increases the federal ... Read Full Answer >>
  4. How do I use the holding period return yield to evaluate my bond portfolio?

    The holding period return yield formula can be used to compare the yields of different bonds in your portfolio over a given ... Read Full Answer >>
  5. What is the relationship between current yield and yield to maturity (YTM)?

    Both the current yield and yield to maturity (YTM) formulas are methods of calculating the yield of a bond. However, these ... Read Full Answer >>
  6. What is a 'busted' convertible bond?

    In finance, a convertible bond represents a hybrid security that offers debt and equity features and risks. While a convertible ... Read Full Answer >>

You May Also Like

Hot Definitions
  1. Financial Crisis

    A situation in which the value of financial institutions or assets drops rapidly. A financial crisis is often associated ...
  2. Election Period

    The period of time during which an investor who owns an extendable or retractable bond must indicate to the issuer whether ...
  3. Shanghai Stock Exchange

    The largest stock exchange in mainland China, the Shanghai Stock Exchange is a nonprofit organization run by the China Securities ...
  4. Dead Cat Bounce

    A temporary recovery from a prolonged decline or bear market, followed by the continuation of the downtrend. A dead cat bounce ...
  5. Bear Market

    A market condition in which the prices of securities are falling, and widespread pessimism causes the negative sentiment ...
  6. Alligator Spread

    An unprofitable spread that occurs as a result of large commissions charged on the transaction, regardless of favorable market ...
Trading Center
×

You are using adblocking software

Want access to all of Investopedia? Add us to your “whitelist”
so you'll never miss a feature!