DEFINITION of 'Inverted Yield Curve'
An interest rate environment in which longterm debt instruments have a lower yield than shortterm debt instruments of the same credit quality. This type of yield curve is the rarest of the three main curve types and is considered to be a predictor of economic recession.
Partial inversion occurs when only some of the shortterm Treasuries (five or 10 years) have higher yields than the 30year Treasuries do. An inverted yield curve is sometimes referred to as a "negative yield curve".
INVESTOPEDIA EXPLAINS 'Inverted Yield Curve'
Historically, inversions of the yield curve have preceded many of the U.S. recessions. Due to this historical correlation, the yield curve is often seen as an accurate forecast of the turning points of the business cycle. A recent example is when the U.S. Treasury yield curve inverted in 2000 just before the U.S. equity markets collapsed. An inverse yield curve predicts lower interest rates in the future as longerterm bonds are being demanded, sending the yields down.
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