January Barometer

AAA

DEFINITION of 'January Barometer'

A theory stating that the movement of the S&P 500 during the month of January sets the stock market's direction for the year (as measured by the S&P 500). The January Barometer states that if the S&P 500 was up at the end of January compared to the beginning of the month, proponents would expect the stock market to rise during the rest of the year.

INVESTOPEDIA EXPLAINS 'January Barometer'

If an investor believes in the ability of the January Barometer to predict the equity market's performance, he or she will only invest in the market in the years when the barometer predicts the market will rise, and stay out of the market when it forecasts a market pullback.

While the January Barometer has been seen to produce better than 50% accuracy rates during 20-year periods, it is difficult to produce excess returns by using it because the improved performance by staying out of the market during bad times can be more than offset by larger losses incurred when the barometer incorrectly predicts a bull market.

RELATED TERMS
  1. Santa Claus Rally

    A surge in the price of stocks that often occurs in the week ...
  2. Barometer

    A compilation of market and economic data that represents a general ...
  3. Index

    A statistical measure of change in an economy or a securities ...
  4. January Effect

    A general increase in stock prices during the month of January. ...
  5. October Effect

    The theory that stocks tend to decline during the month of October. ...
  6. Weekend Effect

    A phenomenon in financial markets in which stock returns on Mondays ...
RELATED FAQS
  1. What are the requirements for being a Public Limited Company?

    The requirements for an entity to be considered a public limited company (PLC) include registration requirements, establishing ... Read Full Answer >>
  2. How do I place an order to buy or sell shares?

    It is easy to get started buying and selling stocks, especially with the advancements in online trading since the turn of ... Read Full Answer >>
  3. Is there a difference between financial spread betting and arbitrage?

    Financial spread betting is a type of speculation that involves a highly leveraged derivative product, whereas arbitrage ... Read Full Answer >>
  4. When does the fixed charge coverage ratio suggest that a company should stop borrowing ...

    Since the fixed charge coverage ratio indicates the number of times a company is capable of making its fixed charge payments ... Read Full Answer >>
  5. What is the difference between the return on total assets and an interest rate?

    Return on total assets (ROTA) represents one of the profitability metrics. It is calculated by taking a company's earnings ... Read Full Answer >>
  6. What is the utility function and how is it calculated?

    In economics, utility function is an important concept that measures preferences over a set of goods and services. Utility ... Read Full Answer >>
Related Articles
  1. Active Trading Fundamentals

    An Introduction To Behavioral Finance

    Curious about how emotions and biases affect the market? Find some useful insight here.
  2. Economics

    The ABCs Of Stock Indexes

    Indexes can track market trends, but they're not always reliable. Can you trust them?
  3. Trading Strategies

    Market Strength Tutorial

    Here you can learn about some of the indicators that traders and brokers use to determine the direction and strength of the market's present trend.
  4. Mutual Funds & ETFs

    Index Investing

    Get to know the most important market indices and the pros and cons of investing in them.
  5. Options & Futures

    How to Make Money by Trading Index Options

    Index options are less volatile and more liquid than regular options. Understand how to trade index options with this simple introduction.
  6. Fundamental Analysis

    Do Stock Splits Cause Volatility?

    Since stock splits decrease the stock price, do they also increase volatility because shares are traded in smaller increments? Investopedia examines assumptions about this increasingly common ...
  7. Investing

    Is It Time To Buy Commodities?

    Despite the news, the Athens Stock Exchange is down less than 5 percent year-to-date, while the Shanghai Composite remains up more than 10 percent.
  8. Fundamental Analysis

    Burger King and Tim Hortons Are Better Together

    In August 2014, 3G Capital announced that it was merging Burger King with Canadian coffee chain Tim Hortons to form Restaurant Brands International.
  9. Mutual Funds & ETFs

    ETF Analysis: Energy Select Sector SPDR

    Find out more about the Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund, the top holdings of this exchange-traded fund and the characteristics of the fund.
  10. Mutual Funds & ETFs

    ETF Analysis: Vanguard MSCI EAFE

    Learn more about Vanguard's index-shifting, low-cost and non-U.S. market exchange-traded fund: the FTSE Developed ex U.S. Markets ETF.

You May Also Like

Hot Definitions
  1. Nuncupative Will

    A verbal will that must have two witnesses and can only deal with the distribution of personal property. A nuncupative will ...
  2. OsMA

    An abbreviation for Oscillator - Moving Average. OsMA is used in technical analysis to represent the variance between an ...
  3. Investopedia

    One of the best-known sources of financial information on the internet. Investopedia is a resource for investors, consumers ...
  4. Unfair Claims Practice

    The improper avoidance of a claim by an insurer or an attempt to reduce the size of the claim. By engaging in unfair claims ...
  5. Killer Bees

    An individual or firm that helps a company fend off a takeover attempt. A killer bee uses defensive strategies to keep an ...
  6. Sin Tax

    A state-sponsored tax that is added to products or services that are seen as vices, such as alcohol, tobacco and gambling. ...
Trading Center
×

You are using adblocking software

Want access to all of Investopedia? Add us to your “whitelist”
so you'll never miss a feature!