Jarrow Turnbull Model

DEFINITION of 'Jarrow Turnbull Model'

One of the first reduced-form models for pricing credit risk. Developed by Robert Jarrow and Stuart Turnbull, the model utilizes multi-factor and dynamic analysis of interest rates to calculate the probability of default. Reduced-form models are one of two approaches to credit risk modeling, the other being structural.

BREAKING DOWN 'Jarrow Turnbull Model'

Structural models assume that the modeler - like a company's managers - has complete knowledge of its assets and liabilities, leading to a predictable default time. Reduced-form models assume that the modeler - like the market - has incomplete knowledge about the company's condition, leading to an inaccessible default time. Jarrow concludes that for pricing and hedging, reduced-form models are the preferred methodology.