Linder Hypothesis

DEFINITION of 'Linder Hypothesis'

An economic hypothesis that posits countries with similar per capita income will consume similar quality products, and that this should lead to them trading with each other. The Linder hypothesis suggests countries will specialize in the production of certain high quality goods, and will trade these goods with countries that demand these goods.

The theory was proposed by Staffan Linder in 1961.

BREAKING DOWN 'Linder Hypothesis'

Linder proposed his hypothesis in attempt to address problems with the Heckscher-Olin theory, which suggests that countries export goods that use their factors of production the most intensely. Because the production of capital-intensive goods is associated with higher income levels compared to labor-intensive goods, this means that countries with dissimilar incomes should trade with each other. The Linder hypothesis suggests the opposite.         

The Linder hypothesis works off the assumption that countries with similar income levels produce and consume similar quality goods and services. Research has shown that both export prices and demand are strongly correlated with income, specifically for the same quality of goods, though income is used as an approximation for demand. In this vein, countries with high incomes likely consume more high quality products.

The hypothesis focuses on high quality goods because the production of those goods are more likely to be capital-intensive. For example, while many countries produce automobiles, not all countries have healthy export markets for these products. Japan, Europe, and the United States actively trade automobiles.

Despite anecdotal evidence suggesting that the Linder hypothesis might be accurate, testing the hypothesis empirically has not resulted in definitive results.