What is 'Modern Portfolio Theory - MPT'
Modern portfolio theory (MPT) is a theory on how risk-averse investors can construct portfolios to optimize or maximize expected return based on a given level of market risk, emphasizing that risk is an inherent part of higher reward. According to the theory, it's possible to construct an "efficient frontier" of optimal portfolios offering the maximum possible expected return for a given level of risk. This theory was pioneered by Harry Markowitz in his paper "Portfolio Selection," published in 1952 by the Journal of Finance.
BREAKING DOWN 'Modern Portfolio Theory - MPT'
A major insight provided by MPT is that an investment's risk and return characteristics should not be viewed alone, but should be evaluated by how the investment affects the overall portfolio's risk and return.
MPT shows that an investor can construct a portfolio of multiple assets that will maximize returns for a given level of risk. Likewise, given a desired level of expected return, an investor can construct a portfolio with the lowest possible risk. Based on statistical measures such as variance and correlation, an individual investment's return is less important than how the investment behaves in the context of the entire portfolio.
Portfolio Risk and Expected Return
MPT makes the assumption that investors are risk-averse, meaning they prefer a less risky portfolio to a riskier one for a given level of return. This implies than an investor will take on more risk only if he or she is expecting more reward.
The expected return of the portfolio is calculated as a weighted sum of the individual assets' returns. If a portfolio contained four equally-weighted assets with expected returns of 4, 6, 10 and 14%, the portfolio's expected return would be:
(4% x 25%) + (6% x 25%) + (10% x 25%) + (14% x 25%) = 8.5%
The portfolio's risk is a complicated function of the variances of each asset and the correlations of each pair of assets. To calculate the risk of a four-asset portfolio, an investor needs each of the four assets' variances and six correlation values, since there are six possible two-asset combinations with four assets. Because of the asset correlations, the total portfolio risk, or standard deviation, is lower than what would be calculated by a weighted sum.
Every possible combination of assets that exists can be plotted on a graph, with the portfolio's risk on the X-axis and the expected return on the Y-axis. This plot reveals the most desirable portfolios. For example, assume Portfolio A has an expected return of 8.5% and a standard deviation of 8%, and that Portfolio B has an expected return of 8.5% and a standard deviation of 9.5%. Portfolio A would be deemed more "efficient" because it has the same expected return but a lower risk. It is possible to draw an upward sloping hyperbola to connect all of the most efficient portfolios, and this is known as the efficient frontier. Investing in any portfolio not on this curve is not desirable.
Harry Markowitz was awarded a Nobel prize for developing MPT.