Objective Probability

AAA

DEFINITION of 'Objective Probability'

The probability that an event will occur based an analysis in which each measure is based on a recorded observation, rather than a subjective estimate. Objective probabilities are a more accurate way to determine probabilities than observations based on subjective measures, such as personal estimates.

BREAKING DOWN 'Objective Probability'

For example, one could determine the objective probability that a coin will land "heads" up by flipping it 100 times and recording each observation. When performing any statistical analysis, it is important for each observation to be an independent event that has not been subject to manipulation. The less biased each observation is, the less biased the end probability will be.

RELATED TERMS
  1. Uniform Distribution

    In statistics, a type of probability distribution in which all ...
  2. Posterior Probability

    The revised probability of an event occurring after taking into ...
  3. Actuarial Consultant

    A professional who advises clients on which methods, processes, ...
  4. Default Probability

    The degree of likelihood that the borrower of a loan or debt ...
  5. Probability Distribution

    A statistical function that describes all the possible values ...
  6. A Priori Probability

    Probability calculated by logically examining existing information. ...
Related Articles
  1. Markets

    Using Historical Volatility To Gauge Future Risk

    Use these calculations to uncover the risk involved in your investments.
  2. Fundamental Analysis

    Find The Right Fit With Probability Distributions

    Discover a few of the most popular probability distributions and how to calculate them.
  3. Term

    What are Mutually Exclusive Events?

    In statistics, mutually exclusive situations involve the occurrence of one event that does not influence or cause another event.
  4. Mutual Funds & ETFs

    ETF Analysis: PowerShares DB Commodity Tracking

    Find out about the PowerShares DB Commodity Tracking ETF, and explore a detailed analysis of the fund that tracks 14 distinct commodities using futures contracts.
  5. Mutual Funds & ETFs

    ETF Analysis: PowerShares FTSE RAFI US 1000

    Find out about the PowerShares FTSE RAFI U.S. 1000 ETF, and explore detailed analysis of the fund that invests in undervalued stocks.
  6. Mutual Funds & ETFs

    ETF Analysis: Vanguard Intermediate-Term Corp Bd

    Learn about the Vanguard Intermediate-Term Corporate Bond ETF, and explore detailed analysis of the fund's characteristics, risks and historical statistics.
  7. Mutual Funds & ETFs

    Top 3 Switzerland ETFs

    Explore detailed analysis and information of the top three Swiss exchange-traded funds that offer exposure to the Swiss equities market.
  8. Economics

    The Problem With Today’s Headline Economic Data

    Headwinds have kept the U.S. growth more moderate than in the past–including leverage levels and an aging population—and the latest GDP revisions prove it.
  9. Economics

    Explaining the Participation Rate

    The participation rate is the percentage of civilians who are either employed or unemployed and looking for a job.
  10. Mutual Funds & ETFs

    ETF Analysis: Guggenheim Enhanced Short Dur

    Find out about the Guggenheim Enhanced Short Duration ETF, and learn detailed information about this fund that focuses on fixed-income securities.
RELATED FAQS
  1. What assumptions are made when conducting a t-test?

    The common assumptions made when doing a t-test include those regarding the scale of measurement, random sampling, normality ... Read Full Answer >>
  2. What are some of the more common types of regressions investors can use?

    The most common types of regression an investor can use are linear regressions and multiple linear regressions. Regressions ... Read Full Answer >>
  3. What types of assets lower portfolio variance?

    Assets that have a negative correlation with each other reduce portfolio variance. Variance is one measure of the volatility ... Read Full Answer >>
  4. When is it better to use systematic over simple random sampling?

    Under simple random sampling, a sample of items is chosen randomly from a population, and each item has an equal probability ... Read Full Answer >>
  5. What are some common financial sampling methods?

    There are two areas in finance where sampling is very important: hypothesis testing and auditing. The type of sampling methods ... Read Full Answer >>
  6. How can I measure portfolio variance?

    Portfolio variance measures the dispersion of returns of a portfolio. It is calculated using the standard deviation of each ... Read Full Answer >>

You May Also Like

Hot Definitions
  1. Bubble Theory

    A school of thought that believes that the prices of assets can temporarily rise far above their true values and that these ...
  2. Stock Market Crash

    A rapid and often unanticipated drop in stock prices. A stock market crash can be the result of major catastrophic events, ...
  3. Financial Crisis

    A situation in which the value of financial institutions or assets drops rapidly. A financial crisis is often associated ...
  4. Election Period

    The period of time during which an investor who owns an extendable or retractable bond must indicate to the issuer whether ...
  5. Shanghai Stock Exchange

    The largest stock exchange in mainland China, the Shanghai Stock Exchange is a nonprofit organization run by the China Securities ...
  6. Dead Cat Bounce

    A temporary recovery from a prolonged decline or bear market, followed by the continuation of the downtrend. A dead cat bounce ...
Trading Center
×

You are using adblocking software

Want access to all of Investopedia? Add us to your “whitelist”
so you'll never miss a feature!