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| Presidential Election Cycle (Theory) |
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A theory developed by Yale Hirsch that states that U.S. stock markets are weakest in the year following the election of a new U.S. president. According to this theory, after the first year, the market improves until the cycle begins again with the next presidential election.
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The theory played out relatively reliably in the early to mid 1900s, but has since been disproved.
In 1937, Franklin D. Roosevelt's first year, the market was down by 27.3%. The Truman and Eisenhower eras also started off with a down year in the stock market. The start of more recent presidencies, however, did not show the same pattern. In George H.W. Bush's first year, the market was up 25.2%, and the start of both of Bill Clinton's terms showed strong market performance - up by 19.9% and 35.9%.
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