DEFINITION of 'Subjective Probability'
A probability derived from an individual's personal judgment about whether a specific outcome is likely to occur. Subjective probabilities contain no formal calculations and only reflect the subject's opinions and past experience.
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BREAKING DOWN 'Subjective Probability'
Subjective probabilities differ from person to person. Because the probability is subjective, it contains a high degree of personal bias. An example of subjective probability could be asking New York Yankees fans, before the baseball season starts, the chances of New York winning the world series. While there is no absolute mathematical proof behind the answer to the example, fans might still reply in actual percentage terms, such as the Yankees having a 25% chance of winning the world series.
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