What is 'Subjective Probability'
Subjective probability is a probability derived from an individual's personal judgment about whether a specific outcome is likely to occur. Subjective probabilities contain no formal calculations and only reflect the subject's opinions and past experience.
BREAKING DOWN 'Subjective Probability'
Subjective probabilities differ from person to person. Because the probability is subjective, it contains a high degree of personal bias. An example of subjective probability could be asking New York Yankees fans, before the baseball season starts, the chances of New York winning the world series. While there is no absolute mathematical proof behind the answer to the example, fans might still reply in actual percentage terms, such as the Yankees having a 25% chance of winning the world series.

Objective Probability
The probability that an event will occur based an analysis in ... 
Subject Offer
Subject offers are intended to be purely informational in nature. ... 
Prior Probability
The probability that an event will reflect established beliefs ... 
Unconditional Probability
The probability that an event will occur, not contingent on any ... 
Joint Probability
A statistical measure where the likelihood of two events occurring ... 
Attribute Sampling
A mathematical process used to analyze the characteristics of ...

Term
Estimating with Subjective Probability
Subjective probability is someoneâ€™s estimation that an event will occur. 
Professionals
Basic Probability Concepts
CFA Level 1  Probability Concepts  Basics. Discusses randomness and various types of probabilities. 
Insurance
Can Money Buy The World Series?
Find out which baseball teams spent the most money over the past 10 years, and where it paid off. 
Personal Finance
New York Yankees
These teams have the highest salaries. 
Insurance
The New York Yankees
Find out which baseball teams spent the most money over the past 10 years, and where it paid off. 
Forex Education
Financial Forecasting: The Bayesian Method
This method can help refine probability estimates using an intuitive process. 
Fundamental Analysis
Scenario Analysis Provides Glimpse Of Portfolio Potential
This statistical method estimates how far a stock might fall in a worstcase scenario. 
Professionals
Joint Probability
CFA Level 1  Probability Concepts  Joint Probability 
Professionals
Scenario / WhatIf Analysis
We look at some ways that you can evaluate your project. 
Professionals
Common Probability Distributions
CFA Level 1  Common Probability Distributions  Basics

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