DEFINITION of 'Super Bowl Indicator'
An indicator based on the belief that a Super Bowl win for a team from the American Football Conference (AFC) foretells a decline in the stock market for the coming year, and a win for a team from the National Football Conference (NFC), or the old National Football League (NFL) before the merger of NFL and American Football League (AFL) in 1966, means the stock market will be up for the year. The Super Bowl indicator was first introduced in 1978 by Leonard Koppett, a sportswriter for The New York Times.
BREAKING DOWN 'Super Bowl Indicator'
Though historically speaking the Super Bowl indicator boasts an 80% accuracy rate, remember the old maxim: correlation does not imply causation. In 2008, despite the New York Giants (NFC) winning the Super Bowl (indicating a Bull Market), the stock market suffered one of the largest downturns since the Great Depression. Though the indicator is an interesting take on predicting the stock market, by no means should the correlation dictate an individual's portfolio construction.
S&P 500 Performance Over the Last 10 Super Bowls
|Year||Winner||League||Conference||S&P 500 Price Return||Prediction|
|2015||New England Patriots||AFL||AFC||-0.69%||Right|
|2014||Seattle Seahawks||Expansion team||NFC||12.39%||Right|
|2013||Baltimore Ravens||Expansion team||AFC||26.39%||Wrong|
|2012||New York Giants||NFL||NFC||11.68%||Right|
|2011||Green Bay Packers||NFL||NFC||-1.12%||Wrong|
|2010||New Orleans Saints||NFL||NFC||11.00%||Right|
|2008||New York Giants||NFL||NFC||-37.58%||Wrong|