Unconditional Probability

AAA

DEFINITION of 'Unconditional Probability'

The probability that an event will occur, not contingent on any prior or related results. An unconditional probability is the independent chance that a single outcome results from a sample of possible outcomes. To find the unconditional probability of an event, sum the outcomes of the event and divide by the total number of possible outcomes.

Unconditional Probability


Also referred to as marginal probability.

BREAKING DOWN 'Unconditional Probability'

Conditional probability measures the chance of an occurrence ignoring any knowledge gained from previous or external events. Since this probability ignores new information, it remains constant. For example, let's examine a group of stocks. A stock can either be a winner, which earns a positive income, or a loser, which has a negative income. Out of five stocks, stock A and B are winners, while C, D and E are losers. What is the unconditional probability of choosing a winning stock? Since two outcomes out of a possible five will produce a winner, the unconditional probability is 40% ( 2 / 5 ).

RELATED TERMS
  1. Symmetrical Distribution

    A situation in which the values of variables occur at regular ...
  2. Default Probability

    The degree of likelihood that the borrower of a loan or debt ...
  3. Probability Distribution

    A statistical function that describes all the possible values ...
  4. Conditional Probability

    Probability of an event or outcome based on the occurrence of ...
  5. A Priori Probability

    Probability calculated by logically examining existing information. ...
  6. Risk

    The chance that an investment's actual return will be different ...
Related Articles
  1. Options & Futures

    An Introduction To Value at Risk (VAR)

    Volatility is not the only way to measure risk. Learn about the "new science of risk management".
  2. Fundamental Analysis

    Find The Right Fit With Probability Distributions

    Discover a few of the most popular probability distributions and how to calculate them.
  3. Mutual Funds & ETFs

    5 Ways To Measure Mutual Fund Risk

    These statistical measurements highlight how to mitigate risk and increase rewards.
  4. Bonds & Fixed Income

    Find The Highest Returns With The Sharpe Ratio

    Learn how to follow the efficient frontier to increase your chances of successful investing.
  5. Active Trading Fundamentals

    Bet Smarter With The Monte Carlo Simulation

    This technique can reduce uncertainty in estimating future outcomes.
  6. Active Trading Fundamentals

    How To Convert Value At Risk To Different Time Periods

    Volatility is not the only way to measure risk. Learn about the "new science of risk management".
  7. Fundamental Analysis

    Monte Carlo Simulation With GBM

    Learn to predict future events through a series of random trials.
  8. Fundamental Analysis

    Examining Mexico's Trillion-Dollar GDP

    Examining the gross domestic product growth and composition of Mexico, the second largest economy in Latin America
  9. Mutual Funds & ETFs

    ETF Analysis: First Trust Dow Jones Global Sel Div

    Find out about the First Trust Dow Jones Global Select Dividend Index Fund, and learn detailed information about characteristics and suitability of the fund.
  10. Fundamental Analysis

    What Causes Inflation in the United States

    Inflation is the main catalyst behind U.S monetary policy. But what causes this phenomenon of sustained rising prices? Read on to find out.
RELATED FAQS
  1. What assumptions are made when conducting a t-test?

    The common assumptions made when doing a t-test include those regarding the scale of measurement, random sampling, normality ... Read Full Answer >>
  2. What is the utility function and how is it calculated?

    In economics, utility function is an important concept that measures preferences over a set of goods and services. Utility ... Read Full Answer >>
  3. What are some of the more common types of regressions investors can use?

    The most common types of regression an investor can use are linear regressions and multiple linear regressions. Regressions ... Read Full Answer >>
  4. What types of assets lower portfolio variance?

    Assets that have a negative correlation with each other reduce portfolio variance. Variance is one measure of the volatility ... Read Full Answer >>
  5. When is it better to use systematic over simple random sampling?

    Under simple random sampling, a sample of items is chosen randomly from a population, and each item has an equal probability ... Read Full Answer >>
  6. What are some common financial sampling methods?

    There are two areas in finance where sampling is very important: hypothesis testing and auditing. The type of sampling methods ... Read Full Answer >>

You May Also Like

Hot Definitions
  1. Recession

    A significant decline in activity across the economy, lasting longer than a few months. It is visible in industrial production, ...
  2. Bubble Theory

    A school of thought that believes that the prices of assets can temporarily rise far above their true values and that these ...
  3. Stock Market Crash

    A rapid and often unanticipated drop in stock prices. A stock market crash can be the result of major catastrophic events, ...
  4. Financial Crisis

    A situation in which the value of financial institutions or assets drops rapidly. A financial crisis is often associated ...
  5. Election Period

    The period of time during which an investor who owns an extendable or retractable bond must indicate to the issuer whether ...
  6. Shanghai Stock Exchange

    The largest stock exchange in mainland China, the Shanghai Stock Exchange is a nonprofit organization run by the China Securities ...
Trading Center
×

You are using adblocking software

Want access to all of Investopedia? Add us to your “whitelist”
so you'll never miss a feature!