1. Commodities Outlook For The Remainder Of 2012: Introduction
  2. Commodities Outlook For The Remainder Of 2012: Different Story In Second Half
  3. Commodities Outlook For The Remainder Of 2012: Energy
  4. Commodities Outlook For The Remainder Of 2012: Natural Gas
  5. Commodities Outlook For The Remainder Of 2012: Coal And Uranium
  6. Commodities Outlook For The Remainder Of 2012: Precious Metals
  7. Commodities Outlook For The Remainder Of 2012: Base Metals
  8. Commodities Outlook For The Remainder Of 2012: Agriculture
  9. Commodities Outlook For The Remainder Of 2012: Conclusion

In summary, I believe commodity pricing will improve through year end. This is based on the belief there will be a QE3, and China will have a soft landing. Europe will continue to lag, but the euro will not disband. The U.S. economy should continue to do well, and easing will aid commodity prices. I think Europe's problems could be worse and take longer to overcome, as it seems disinterested in an aggressive stance. Keep in mind that these estimates could change significantly by just one of these variables being better or worse than expected. If there was a commodity to watch it is oil, and the problems in Europe could cause a big move in the price of Brent. We will continue to see Brent trading at a significant differential to WTI. There is an upside to natural gas in the U.S., but this could take some time to realize. Coal will continue to be weak in a low natural gas price environment. Gold is a great way to play inflation, and the further cutting of the dollar by the Fed. Other precious metals will not be so lucky. The base metals will trade sideways for some time. Agricultural commodities will improve in price, but corn could be the best way to play this. One thing I am fairly certain of is the financial crisis in the U.S. and Europe has created a fear of deflation that could easily over correct. If this is the case the problem isn't deflation, but inflation.


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