Dow Theory: Trend Remains In Effect Until Clear Reversal Occurs
  1. Dow Theory: Introduction
  2. Dow Theory: The Market Discounts Everything
  3. Dow Theory: The Three-Trend Market
  4. Dow Theory: The Three Phases Of Primary Trends
  5. Dow Theory: Market Indexes Must Confirm Each Other
  6. Dow Theory: Volume Must Confirm The Trend
  7. Dow Theory: Trend Remains In Effect Until Clear Reversal Occurs
  8. Dow Theory: Dow Theory Specifics
  9. Dow Theory: Current Relevance
  10. Dow Theory: Conclusion

Dow Theory: Trend Remains In Effect Until Clear Reversal Occurs

By Chad Langager and Casey Murphy, senior analyst of ChartAdvisor.com

The reason for identifying a trend is to determine the overall direction of the market so that trades can be made with the trends and not against them. As was illustrated in the third tenet, trends move from uptrend to downtrend, which makes it important to identify transitions between these two trend directions. (For related reading, see Track Stock Prices With Trendlines.)

In Dow theory, the sixth and final tenet states that a trend remains in effect until the weight of evidence suggests that it has been reversed.

Traders wait for a clear picture of a trend reversal because the goal is not to confuse a true reversal in the primary trend with a secondary trend or brief correction. Remember that a secondary trend is a move in the opposite direction of the primary trend that will not continue. For example, imagine that the primary trend is up, but the indexes are currently selling off. If an investor were to take a short position, concluding that the sell-off is the start of a new primary downward trend, they could get burned when the primary trend continues.

Unless you can safely conclude, based on the weight of evidence, that the trend has changed, you will be trading against the trend. As a general rule, this is not a wise idea, as many have been hurt by trading against the market.

Dow Theory: Dow Theory Specifics

  1. Dow Theory: Introduction
  2. Dow Theory: The Market Discounts Everything
  3. Dow Theory: The Three-Trend Market
  4. Dow Theory: The Three Phases Of Primary Trends
  5. Dow Theory: Market Indexes Must Confirm Each Other
  6. Dow Theory: Volume Must Confirm The Trend
  7. Dow Theory: Trend Remains In Effect Until Clear Reversal Occurs
  8. Dow Theory: Dow Theory Specifics
  9. Dow Theory: Current Relevance
  10. Dow Theory: Conclusion
RELATED TERMS
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  5. Retracement

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RELATED FAQS
  1. What are the differences between patterns and trends?

    Learn the difference between a pattern and a trend. Explore how technical analysts use patterns and trends to identify trading ... Read Answer >>
  2. Does a strong trend (ADX > = 40) cause an increase in volatility?

    In technical analysis, there have been numerous indicators invented for identifying trends. One of the most common of these ... Read Answer >>
  3. What is the average range for the price-to-earnings ratio in the electronics sector?

    Understand the difference between the primary market and the secondary market, and learn which investors are able to participate ... Read Answer >>
  4. How should a risk-averse investor build a retirement portfolio?

    Learn about a strategy to take advantage of a higher high failure on a chart, as well as the basics of trend trading and ... Read Answer >>
  5. What is the difference between a primary and secondary financial market?

    Learn about primary and secondary financial markets, how investors use these markets and the difference between primary and ... Read Answer >>
  6. How is the Dow Jones Industrial Average used in the Dow theory?

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