Monte Carlo Simulation
In its most basic form, the Monte Carlo simulation seeks to simulate real-world outcomes by showing a range of outcomes for a given variable set. For example, in the casino game roulette, Monte Carlo could simulate where the roulette ball lands for 10 consecutive rounds.
Excel's "RAND" function can generate random numbers in a given sample set. By simply setting the formula equal to RAND, Excel will generate a random number between 0 and 1. To detail the range of possible outcomes, Microsoft states that around 25% of the time, a number less than or equal to 0.25 should occur, and around 20% of the time the number will be at least 0.90, which is logical and intuitive, given the outcomes are restricted to such a tight range.
Excel offers a number of other ways to simulate random variable outcomes. For instance, the "NORMINV" function returns the inverse of the normal distribution for a specified mean and standard deviation.
The valuation of stock options can be incredibly complex and math-intensive. Excel offers a number of ways to price stock options, including the more plain vanilla puts and calls. The Black-Scholes formula is the most widely adopted measure for valuing an option. Its inputs are as follows:
S=Today's stock price
t=Duration of the option (in years)
r=Annual risk-free rate (This rate is assumed to be continuously compounded.)
σ=Annual volatility of stock
y=Percentage of stock value paid annually in dividends
Excel doesn't have an actual formula employing Black-Scholes, but there are add-ins, as well as additional outside files that can be downloaded to help the user calculate the value of a put or call option.
Time Value of Money
The time value of money generally relates to the concepts of present value and future value, as explained previously in the PV Functions and FV Functions. The basic forms of the time value of money, which consists of multiplying an initial present value by an interest rate to get to a future value, can easily be calculated via a single cell calculation in Excel.
The more complicated theories, including DCF, DDM and RIM, require more sophisticated modeling techniques in Excel and have also been touched upon in previous pages.
InvestingMonte Carlo simulation is an analysis done by running a number of different variables through a model in order to determine the different outcomes.
InvestingA Monte Carlo simulation allows analysts and advisors to convert investment chances into choices. The advantage of Monte Carlo is its ability to factor in a range of values for various inputs.
InvestingHow to apply the Monte Carlo Simulation principles to a game of dice using Microsoft Excel.
InvestingLearn to predict future events through a series of random trials.
TradingVolatility is not the only way to measure risk. Learn about the "new science of risk management".
InvestingThink you can beat the Street? We'll show you how to test your abilities without losing your shirt.
TradingThis technique can reduce uncertainty in estimating future outcomes.
InvestingStock simulators enable one to practice trading, but they have some disadvantages that you should be aware of, before transitioning to actual trading.
MarketsWe will use the average of the change in log prices, the volatility, the normal distribution and Excel to formulate the future prices of an asset.
TradingStock market simulators let you pick securities, make trades and track the results-all without risking a penny.