Investopedia's Forex Outlook For November 2012: Upcoming Events To Watch
November 1 - Germany's PMI Manufacturing Index will be released, which will provide insight into the health of Germany's manufacturing sector. After seven straight months of decline, traders will be looking for any signs of improvement over September's 47.4 reading. Readings below 50.0 suggest that the manufacturing sector is contracting.
The Bank of Japan will also release its MPB minutes, which should provide some cues into the health of the Asian economy. Traders will be looking for clues that might suggest economic stimulus is on the way, as the economy has shown continued signs of a slowdown, thanks to troubled end markets, particularly in Europe.
November 5 - Germany and the European Monetary Union will release their PMI Services Indexes, providing some insight into the regions' service sector growth. With the EM index showing a weak reading of 46.1 in September, traders will be watching for any signs of improvement, as service sectors represent a substantial portion of the economy.
November 11 - Japan will release its latest GDP statistics, which traders will be watching very closely. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) recently cut the country's GDP estimate, saying that more easing may be necessary to hit its 1% inflation target. Japan is now expected to report 2012 GDP of 2.2% and a 2013 GDP of around 1.2% - both down from prior estimates.
November 13 - Britain will report their consumer price index (CPI) and Purchaser Price Index (PPI), which will provide insight into inflation rates in the countries. British inflation hit a 3-year low of 2.2% in September, but analysts warned that the declines could soon reverse. The fall helps the budgets of small businesses and families struggling during the recession.
At the same time, Italy will report its consumer price index data. Last month, the country's CPI didn't drop as expected in September and came in unchanged. These levels will be closely watched, particular as Spain is set to request rescue measures from the ECB, which could put Italy's government under pressure to do the same.
November 14 - Britain will release its Labor Market Report, which will detail any improvement in the country's workforce. While the country received a sizable boost in payrolls due to the Olympic games, as jobless benefit claims fell 4,000 to 1.57 million in mid-October, the market will be watching to see if these trends continue after the games have passed.
The European Monetary Union will also release its industrial production report, showing any improvements in the region's manufacturing economy. Growth in southern eurozone economies continues to be very weak, while German manufacturing is experiencing difficulty in making up for those losses as of late. Traders will be looking for any reversal in trends.
November 15 - Major eurozone economies will release their GDP statistics, including France, Germany, Italy and the monetary union. During the second quarter, the region's GDP fell 0.2%, as expected, which was less than the 0.3% drop during the first quarter. Traders will be looking for a continuation of this positive trend with a reading above a 0.2% decline.
Britain will report its retail sales figures, which have been very strong as of late. Retail sales rose 0.6% in September, making up for a 0.1% dip in August, according to the Office for National Statistics. In particular, clothing and footwear sales boosted overall results. Traders will be looking for a continuation of these trends in October's retail sales figures.
November 20 - Japan will release its merchandise trade report, which will provide insight into the country's global trade situation. In August, the country posted its second straight monthly trade deficit amounting to 754.1 billion yen, but the figure was less than many economists expected. The figure signals the increasing difficulty seen in trading overseas.
November 25 - The Bank of Japan will release its MPB minutes, which again should provide some cues into the health of the Asian economy. Traders will be looking for clues that might suggest economic stimulus is on the way, as the economy has shown continued signs of a slowdown, thanks to troubled end markets, particularly in Europe.
November 28 - The U.S. will report new home sales data, which will provide additional clues into the country's housing recovery. In September, new home construction hit a 4-year high, accelerating 15% to an annual rate of 872,000 last month, according to the Commerce Department. Traders will be watching to see if these trends continue.
November 29 - The eurozone will release its EC Economic Sentiment Index, which will provide key insight into the region's consumer confidence. In September, the survey fell to 85.0 from 86.1 in August, signaling increasing turmoil in the eurozone as it reached the lowest level since 2009. Traders are looking for any potential reversal in this trend.
The U.S. will also report its jobless claims, which will provide insight into the country's employment market. On October 18, jobless claims rose 46,000 to 388,000, but officials warned that it was due to a shift in the way one state was reporting its claims figure. Either way, these statistics point to a slow recovery that traders will be eying closely.
November 30 - The European Monetary Union will release its HICP Flash, which provides key insights into the region's inflation or deflation. In September, the HICP Flash rose by 2.7% to a six month high. Traders will be watching to see if this trend reverses, which could ease pressure on the region.
Italy will release its consumer price index, which will provide insights into inflation. Again, last month, the country's CPI didn't drop as expected in September and came in unchanged. These levels will be closely watched, particular as Spain is set to request rescue measures from the ECB, which could put Italy's government under pressure to do the same.
*As of October 18, 2012
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