Alexander Michael Adams

Personal Finance, Retirement, Investing
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“With over 30 years of experience in financial markets, Alexander Michael Adams is committed to creating and preserving the wealth of his clients, all of whom do not accept average service.”
Firm:

Adams Financial Concepts LLC

Job Title:

President and Principal

Biography:

Alexander Michael Adams (“Mike”) founded Adams Financial Concepts as a Registered Investment Advisor. He believes that the fiduciary status of always putting his clients’ interests first is superior to the philosophy of big brokerage firms.

Formerly a Senior Vice President and Senior Portfolio Manager at Wachovia Securities, LLC, he has been a securities portfolio manager since 1990. Mike began his career in the financial industry at Paine Webber in 1986, where he was a retail stockbroker. In 1990, Mike moved to Dain Rauscher to transition his business from the traditional transaction-based stock and bond trading to fee-based portfolio management. From the inception of his career, Mike has been recognized as a leader in the industry, earning distinction as a rookie by being named to the "Eagle's Nest" and in subsequent years at Dain Rauscher, being recognized as part of the President's or Chairman's Counsel.

Mike's prescient instincts and desire to "do it his way" led him to develop his own portfolio philosophy and strategies. Earlier training as a mathematician enabled him to interpret portfolio dynamics in "game theory" terms. Mike Adams began his professional life with eleven years in the aluminum industry in 1967, after gaining a masters degree in industrial administration from Carnegie Mellon University and a bachelor’s degree from Oregon State University. He started as a management trainee, including one and a half years in France and worked up the corporate ladder to spend five years as plant superintendent managing several hundred people.

Mike believes in giving back to the community. He serves on the Board of Directors of Music Aid Northwest and is a Rotarian. He formerly served as Chairman of the Board of Directors of Seattle Theatre Group (a not-for-profit corporation), operator of The Paramount and The Moore Theatres. He has served on a number of other boards including the Seattle Symphony. He was involved with a number of youth programs while his children were at home. Mike is married to his wife Pamela. They have two children and three grandchildren with a fourth on the way.

Education:

MBA, Business, Carnegie Mellon University
BS, Mathematics, Oregon State University

Assets Under Management:

$32 million

CRD Number:

1492147

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    Investing, Mutual Funds
What is the average annual return for the S&P 500?
87% of people found this answer helpful

Very interesting question. It depends on what time period is used. For example, the average annual return from August 1982 to March 2000 was 12.2%. That was a long secular bull market. From March 2000 July 2016 the return is less than 3%. If you look at the secular bull markets since 1900 to the end of 2000, it seems like the average return has increased for each successive secular bull, but the time has been shorter. Take for example the 1941 to 1966 time the S&P increased approximately 10 fold in 25 years. The secular bull from 1982 to 2000 was an increase of 10 fold in 18 years. The question is whether we entered a new long-term secular bull market in 2010 or 2011 and how long will it last. I believe we did and the duration will be less than 18 years.

By the way, 10% will double in 7 years, not 10.

There is one other factor to consider in all this. Things are changing ever more rapidly. The companies that made up the S&P 500 in 1920 had an average life of 70 years before they died (think Eastman Kodak, Woolworth, Union Carbide, etc.). Today the average life of a company in the S&P 500 is less than 20 years and is approaching 15 years.

Let me ask you a question. If you started with a penny and each time you received twice what you had the day before, how much money would you have at the end of 30 days? Take a guess before you read further.

x

x

You would have over $10 million at the end of 30 days. But, 1/2 of that came the last day. 75% came the last two days. 90% came the last 4 days. The curve in the beginning looked like a flat line. It is only when the curve turns sharply upward that you realize it is exponential.

Is the S&P going to look like an exponentially increasing curve? I think an argument can be made it is showing that characteristic. And the speed of turnover seems to validate that.

While many market pundits are publicizing a view that returns are going to be significantly lower than history, I believe they are going to be shocked with what the returns will actually be. The danger is investors who buy into the view of lower returns. Instead of firing their advisor for lousy results they will keep the advisor because the so-called experts said to expect low returns.

 

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